The Golden State Valkyries (21-9) and Dallas Wings (19-12) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Wings are favored by -1.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 161.5 (-110o / -110u). The Wings are a -118 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are -104 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Wings predictions and WNBA picks.
Valkyries vs. Wings Odds, Pick
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -104 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
- Valkyries vs. Wings Spread: -Valkyries +1.5 (-118), Wings -1.5 (-104)
- Valkyries vs. Wings Over/Under: 161.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Valkyries vs. Wings Moneyline: Valkyries -104, Wings -118
- Valkyries vs. Wings Best Bet: Over 161.5 (-110)
Valkyries vs. Wings Preview
With 21 wins already in the books, Golden State is just two victories away from matching its total in the previous campaign of what was an inaugural season. At 21-9, the Valkyries are currently third in the table and three games behind the Lynx for the best record in the league.
Much of Golden State's success has centered on a stifling defense that limits opponents to league-best 42.2% shooting from the floor.
A few weeks ago, the defense was so good that they had back-to-back games close with totals under 150 points.
However, you probably won't find a team as streaky as the Valkyries when it comes to totals. They've already had two 5-0 under runs and a 6-0 run to the over.
Golden State is currently in the midst of a 4-0 over run, and yet we have a line for tonight's game in Dallas that's ticking down to 161.5 after opening at 163.5.
In a season where overs are cashing at an alarming rate of 56% (130-102-1), the trend line still suggests that we should be on the over more times than not in these games.
Valkyries vs. Wings Prediction
As mentioned, you can rack your brain endlessly by trying to project totals in Valkyries' games. There have clearly been some stinkers like the July 6th game in Washington where both teams combined to score just 111 points in 40 minutes of action.
Moreover, the Valkyries have already had 12 games this season where the combined score for both teams was under 160 points and eight games where they stayed below 150.
Yet, despite those putrid offensive showings, Golden State still has an over-under mark of 15-15. Their last four games have come against Washington, Phoenix and Toronto, with the over on a 4-0 run.
Interestingly, all three of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, yet during that span, the Valkyries have looked more like an average defensive unit, ranking eighth with a 111.1 rating.
They will now face a Wings team that ranks in the top five offensively.
These teams will meet for the second time this season with Golden State winning the first matchup 91-80. Both teams have combined to score at least 162 points in four of their five meetings historically.
This is one spot where I'm not keen on following the money, considering that totals with a range up to 162 that move down after opening are 8-5 to the over this season.
Given that we've already seen the Valkyries put together some of these streaky runs when it comes to totals, this isn't the time to jump off the bandwagon just yet.
Best Bet: Over 161.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
