The New York Liberty (24-16) and Minnesota Lynx (31-9) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Lynx are favored by -6.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 177.5 (-108o / -112u). The Lynx are a -245 favorite to win outright, while the Liberty are +200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Liberty vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert bets and analysis.
Liberty vs. Lynx Odds, Pick
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 177.5 -108o / -112u | +200 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 177.5 -108o / -112u | -245 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Lynx -6.5 (-112), Liberty +6.5 (-108)
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 177.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Liberty vs. Lynx Moneyline: Liberty +200, Lynx -245
- Liberty vs. Lynx Best Bet: Under 177.5 points (-112)
Liberty vs. Lynx Preview
Although New York and Minnesota will meet for the final time this regular season on Friday night, both teams could meet again once the playoffs get underway. That's because New York is currently the eighth seed, a half-game behind Washington and Dallas, while Minnesota holds the #1 seed, two games ahead of Golden State.
After entering the campaign with the highest preseason win total at 32.5, the Liberty certainly didn't envision themselves as a potential #8 seed in a first-round matchup.
Unfortunately, multiple injuries to key players contributed to New York's struggles. The starting backcourt duo of guards Sabrina Ionescu and Leonie Fiebich didn't share the court together until their 14th game of the season in Mid-June.
Satou Sabally, another projected starter, was sidelined early on due to a cyst in her knee. When Sabally returned to the team, she managed just 13 games before sustaining a serious concussion that ruled her out for the year.
Thus, the season has had a start-and-stop feel for this Liberty team. When healthy, there's no question this is a talented group, as evidenced by their run to lift the Commissioner's Cup in the midseason tournament.
Friday's matchup could very well portend that something even greater is on the line should these teams meet in the postseason. So, it wouldn't surprise me if we see a playoff-type atmosphere that leads to a lower-scoring game.
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction
For a team that's loaded with veterans like New York, I don't expect them to fear the Minnesota Lynx. After all, New York did win by double digits (99-86) when they met at the Barclays Center in July. The Lynx then returned the favor with a 90-85 victory on their home court.
Minnesota boasts one of the league's best defensive teams, ranking second in efficiency and allowing 103.5 points per 100 possessions. It's also particularly elite when defending the perimeter. Despite allowing the most 3-point attempts per game (28.0), Lynx opponents have the second-worst 3-point percentage (32.6%) on their shots.
Perimeter defense will be particularly a key factor against a Liberty team that ranks third in attempts (29.2) and fourth in 3-point field goals (10.2).
As good as Minnesota is offensively, one of the biggest misconceptions is that it plays at a ton of pace.
However, Minnesota's 80.46 possessions per 40 minutes ranks only seventh in the league. Nonetheless, we've seen bookmakers adjust from the start of the season, with Minnesota's totals seemingly not priced high enough.
After totals of 160.5 and 168.5 went over in the Lynx's first two games, we saw a massive jump to 178.5 in their third game. Over their 40 games, Minnesota has an average total of 173.3 points.
But when we start seeing totals move to 177 or higher, it's best to go in the opposite direction. It's worth noting that totals within this range are 8-5 to the under.
We've already seen Minnesota's tempo really start to slow down recently. Over its last six games, Minnesota had the second-slowest pace with just 75.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
It's almost as if Minnesota has already taken its foot off the accelerator and begun easing its way into playoff-type basketball.
And while New York has been the second-most profitable team for over-bettors at 23-17, the under is 5-1 in its last six games and 7-3 in its last 10.
There's also the possibility that these teams might not want to reveal their full hand if they do meet in the playoffs.
After running the numbers, my model projects a total closer to 171 points. When you couple that projection with the aforementioned trends and potential for a slower pace, the under offers a ton of value at the current price.
Best Bet: Under 177.5 points (-112)
