WNBA Championship Odds: Liberty Make a Dent in Aces’ Lead After back-to-back Matchups

WNBA Championship Odds: Liberty Make a Dent in Aces’ Lead After back-to-back Matchups article feature image

The WNBA regular season has essentially been a two-team race based on WNBA title odds movement. The Las Vegas Aces (28-3) and New York Liberty (24-7) have the two best records in the league and, in the eyes of oddsmakers, have pulled away from the rest of the field as far as their championship odds. (The Connecticut Sun aren't far behind in the standings, but aren't getting the same respect from sportsbooks.) Here's a look at where the the WNBA title odds stand.

WNBA Championship Odds

Odds as of August 18 and via FanDuel

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Las Vegas Aces-26064.53%
New York Liberty+24026.28%
Connecticut Sun+30002.88%
Dallas Wings+32002.71%
Washington Mystics+65001.35%
Atlanta Dream+160000.56%
Chicago Sky+180000.49%
Minnesota Lynx+220000.40%
Los Angeles Sparks+370000.24%
Seattle Storm+490000.18%
Phoenix Mercury+490000.18%
Indiana Fever+490000.18%

Prior to their Commissioner's Cup matchup, the Aces were -420 favorites to win the WNBA championship at FanDuel with the Liberty just behind them at +320. After losing on their home floor for the first time this season (a technicality since the cup championship isn't a regular season game), the Aces' odds dipped below -200 before being bet back up to -260.

After getting a revenge win in Thursday night's regular season matchup, the Aces' odds didn't move, but they still have the attention of bettors. According to data from FanDuel entering last night's game, the Liberty (14%), Sun (14%) Mercury (12%) and Aces (11%) have drawn the most bets to win the WNBA championship. However, the Aces have 55% of the handle, followed by the Liberty with 18% of the handle at the sportsbook.

WNBA Championship Odds Analysis

Action Network WNBA betting contributor, Jim Turvey, has followed both teams closely all season and after seeing the Liberty top the Aces twice this month, he believes there are key takeaways from those matchups that could impact at potential WNBA Finals meeting.

Turvey: In the recent matchups between the Liberty and the Aces, one thing has become clear: Jonquel Jones is back to an elite level, and it spells trouble for the Candace Parker-less Aces.

In their two wins, Jones has gone for an average of 14.0 points and 14.5 rebounds, with 12 of those 29 rebounds coming on the offensive end. She has also given A'ja Wilson fits in the post, holding the MVP to 9.0 points per game on 16.7% shooting.

Some of that will regress to the mean — Wilson went for 21 points and eight rebounds in Thursday's win — but the Liberty are pretty clearly a tough matchup for the Aces, which makes their futures market (in which they are still nearly two to one to win the title) very interesting.

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