Dinger Tuesday Picks: Josh Naylor, Cal Raleigh Among Best Bets

MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel is one of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community.

The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.

Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.

Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.

If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the max return of $25, an average of two-to-three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.

Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.

Here are my three favorite MLB home run bets for Dinger Tuesday for May 7.

(Maximize your Dinger Tuesday action with our FanDuel promo code.)

The Guardians focused most of their hitting approach in the offseason on trying to pull the ball in the air more and generate more power. The Guardians finished last in MLB in isolated power last year and the offense struggled as a result. Josh Naylor is one of their top power hitters and even he is lifting the ball in the air more than years past. Naylor had a 33% fly ball rate in 2022, which went up to 36% in 2023 and now his fly ball rate is peaking for his career in 2024. Naylor is at 40% and he's posted a career high 10.2% barrel rate as well.

Naylor is finally playing every day for the Guardians and could be in the midst of a mini breakout. His primary matchup is with Tigers RHP Kenta Maeda, whose fastball velocity is in steep decline and his HR/9 allowed is one of the highest in MLB. Maeda allowed 1.35 HR/9 in 2022, 1.47 in 2023 and is all the way up to an absurd 2.52 HR/9 in his first 28 innings of 2024.

Maeda's decline makes him extremely vulnerable to homers and Naylor is the top option on Cleveland to exploit that.

Schneider's prices at non FanDuel books are all shorter than +470. Schneider's combination of pulled fly ball power and patience has been quite impressive this season. Schneider hits nearly 50% of his batted balls as fly balls and has an extremely high pull rate. He faces sinker baller Cristopher Sanchez, who has consistent problems with allowing home runs to right handed hitters in his MLB career. Sanchez throws primarily sinkers, and Schneider had a .593 SLG against sinkers last year and is at .500 this year.

Sanchez allowed 15 HRs in 316 PAs against righties last year and has dramatic platoon splits in 2024 as well.

The barometric pressure at first pitch in Minnesota tonight is projected to be lower than Coors Field at elevation. That will create a favorable atmosphere for offense and have the ball flying further, which helps homers and thus this is the best value game on the board for Dinger Tuesday.

Most of the FanDuel odds for this game are considerably better than other books, and there are multiple +EV bets given the quietly excellent offensive underlying conditions at Target Field on Tuesday. Emerson Hancock has had a home run problem this year for Seattle, but his fly ball rates are sub-40% and he's the less enticing pitcher in this matchup to go against.

I'm generally a big Bailey Ober fan, but his 50% fly ball rate allowed makes him extremely vulnerable to the long ball. Ober has excellent plus command, but the extreme fly ball approach of Cal Raleigh combined with the fly ball rate allowed by Ober is a recipe to allow home runs.

Raleigh has posted a career high barrel rate and hard hit rate this year, and he's pulling fly balls more than he ever has.