Awards season in the film industry is officially underway with the announcement of this year’s Golden Globe nominations. One Battle After Another, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, leads all film nominees with nine nods, while on the television side, The White Lotus dominates once again with six.
One of the most anticipated categories is Best Motion Picture – Drama, featuring a slate that gives significant room to international productions, another sign of an increasingly global and diverse awards season.
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Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama Odds
Ryan Coogler’s horror drama Sinners stands as the clear favorite with a 53% chance to win. Behind its supernatural premise — vampires haunting rural Mississippi in 1932 — the film explores themes of the Great Migration, racism, and the Black community’s struggle for freedom, all delivered through masterful visual storytelling and music.
The result has been a far stronger box-office performance and critical reception than expected. Now, with seven nominations at the 83rd Annual Golden Globes, Sinners looks to surprise the broader industry as well.
Hamnet follows with a 39% probability, though its odds slipped after nominations were announced. Directed by Chloé Zhao, the film lacks a star-studded cast, but delivers a powerful fictional portrayal of Agnes and William Shakespeare as they grieve the death of their son Hamnet.
The performances of Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal earned widespread praise from critics, and the film was named one of the American Film Institute’s Top 10 Films of 2025.
Further down the board sits the Norwegian film Sentimental Value, with an 8% chance to take home the statue. Directed by Joachim Trier, this dramedy follows two sisters who reconnect with their estranged father, a filmmaker who complicates their fragile relationship by offering a role in his next movie to a Hollywood star after one daughter turns him down.
The film won the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival, where It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi took home the 2025 Palme d’Or. That Iran–France–Luxembourg co-production also made its way into the Golden Globe nominations and holds a 5% chance of winning, according to Kalshi.
Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein is another of the six nominees for Best Motion Picture – Drama, though it is not listed on this market. The film marks the latest cinematic adaptation of Mary Shelley’s classic novel and earned five overall nominations.
This gothic tale stars Guatemalan-American actor Oscar Isaac as the scientist and Jacob Elordi as the Creature — both of whom also received acting nominations — alongside Mia Goth as Lady Elisabeth Harlander.
Also nominated, but absent from Kalshi’s odds, is The Secret Agent, a Brazilian drama starring Wagner Moura. The movie follows a professor caught in the political turmoil of the final years of Brazil’s military dictatorship.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
