The PGA Tour heads north of the border for the 2026 RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto.
While many of the world's best are heading to Toronto, there are more ways to bet on the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite RBC Canadian Open first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
RBC Canadian Open First-Round Leader Picks, Predictions
First-Round Leader Pick: Tommy Fleetwood
+2900 · DraftKings
Putting is essential this week. The course is relatively easy, with fairways and greens both yielding above-average accuracy relative to PGA Tour standards, turning this event into a putting contest.
As a result, each of the top five finishers here last year ranked inside the top 16 in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
That profile makes Tommy Fleetwood a strong option. As the tournament favorite, Fleetwood enters this week in good form following his T4 finish at the Memorial Tournament.
He finished eighth in the field in strokes gained: putting and ranks in the 91st percentile on the PGA Tour in that category.
Fleetwood is also a strong starter, ranking above the PGA Tour average in first-round scoring.
First-Round Leader Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard
+4500 · BetMGM
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Nicolai Hojgaard. Like Fleetwood, Hojgaard fits this course well.
Entering this week, he ranks in the top third of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He is also a strong starter and enters in good form.
Hojgaard ranks above the PGA Tour average in first-round scoring and is coming off multiple runner-up finishes over the past couple of months.
With TPC Toronto favoring a “grip it and rip it” approach, most approach shots will come from wedge distances. Last year, 19.4% of approach shots came from the 125-150-yard range, and no other 25-yard grouping exceeded 15.1%.
Hojgaard ranks in the 87th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach from 100-150 yards.
