For the final leg of the FedExCup Tournament, we head to Atlanta, Georgia, for the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
East Lake is a par-70 course, spanning just under 7,500 yards, featuring 12 par-4 holes, four par-3s, and two par-5s. To determine the best value for this weekend, we go to our staff to find out the best value picks.
Let's dive into our staff's TOUR Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
First Round Leader Pick: Xander Schauffele (+1000)
By: Tony Sartori
Putting separates the men from the boys at East Lake Golf Club. Last year, each of the top nine finishers here ranked inside the top 15 in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
With strong putting necessary for success, Xander Schauffele is a great target in this market. These greens are no issue for Schauffele, who has finished inside the top seven in each of his eight career appearances at East Lake, including his win in 2017.
He also enters this week in good form with two top-seven finishes in his past three tournaments. He gained true strokes putting in each of those two outings, and if he can get the flat stick going Thursday, it would not be surprising to see Schauffele jump out to an early lead.
It is also worth noting that Schauffele was the first-round leader here in 2019.
Matchup Winner Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Over Ludvig Aberg (-115)
By: Spencer Aguiar
Sharp markets seem to have taken a liking to Ludvig Aberg this week. I don't fully disagree (multiple top-end metrics show upside), but I chose to discuss this play on my website over the two additional matchups because the data outlook is unique for this wager compared to the others (you can also get all three plays on the Action podcast this week). Being contrarian is also something that I like to try and be when possible.
I simulated the tournament 25,000 times to find any aberrant results. Aberg showed a vast range of outcomes. There were wins, top-five finishes, and a ton of bottom-end results. In fact, no elite golfer on the slate had as many "dud" performances as Aberg did across all the simulations I ran.
I don't want that narrative to be blown out of proportion for someone who ranked second in "Comp Courses" and fifth in "Weighted Scoring."
The driver is also about as good as you are going to find in this field, yet I want to ask the question again: "Where is this price coming from in the market that is making sharps act in favor of Aberg, and why might upside and safety tell two different stories on this board?"
To answer the first part of this question, I do think those scoring marks and past iterations on similar courses are noteworthy when trying to back a golfer who has been close multiple times this year but hasn't been able to get across the finish line.
While his East Lake history isn't as promising, Quail Hollow, Augusta National, Bellerive, and countless other similar locations are tailor-made for his driving acumen to separate him from the pack. If sharps are honing in on that narrative, there are reasons to be optimistic.
On the flip side of that equation, why do my simulations start to tank Aberg's average finish position for the week down to 14.79, the 12th-best on the board for a top-five-priced golfer? That answer seems to have more to do with a disdain toward his approach metrics and putting.
Those are two areas where golfers can detach from the pack because of the overall ease of production, and misses start to compound in a very data-intensive way, showing a lack of true upside in the mix. Perhaps that is why Aberg has nothing better than a 19th here in two tries?
All of that is a straightforward way of saying I am taking Aberg on this week. It won't come from any golfer matched against him on the slate because the upside is worth noting, but if a Tommy Fleetwood bet can keep me from wasting more units on him as an outright, there must be some positives there that aren't even being discussed.
Outright Winner Pick: Russell Henley (+3000)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Russell Henley has been one of the most consistent players on TOUR over the last few years. He's gone from a golfer who could only contend in weak fields to one who can contend in any field. In the last two years, he's won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Charles Schwab Challenge. He's also posted multiple top-10 finishes at the majors.
I'm valuing accuracy over distance off the tee this week, as there's a massive difference in greens-in-regulation rate from the fairway compared to the rough.
Henley is very accurate; he's a good iron player, and he's a great putter on Bermuda greens. He's finished in the top 5 at this event in each of the past two years, and this is essentially a home game for him, as he went to the University of Georgia and still lives in the state.
Top-10 Pick: Si Woo Kim (+150)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Si Woo Kim has been featured on my betting cards all season. He's yet to pick up a win, but he's cashed plenty of top-10 bets for us. At this point, there's no reason to shy away from a good thing.
Like many of my bets this week, Kim gains his strokes off the tee through accuracy and not distance. I'm fine with slightly longer approach shots if they are coming from the short grass.
Kim has already racked up 11 top-10 finishes this season, so he should have no issue posting one more in a field of only 30 golfers. He's only played here once in the last five years (T17), but he's a much better golfer now than he's been at any point in his career.
Outright Winner Pick: Sam Burns (+1800)
By: Jake Zach
Burns is in the exact spot Tommy Fleetwood was in a year ago. Knocking on the door all season, banking close call after close call, then finally kicking it in at East Lake to end the year.
Look at the résumé:
- T4 at the Memorial
- Runner-up at the U.S. Open
- Third at The Open
- Third at the St. Jude
That’s not a player getting lucky into contention; that’s a player whose game is already there.
Now he gets back on Bermuda, and he’s far and away the best Bermuda putter on Tour. The greens here are TifEagle Bermuda, sitting lower and playing larger post-restoration, rolling 12.5 to 13 when firm.
Expanded green locations and new short-grass collection areas mean more variety around the complexes and more chances for a great putter to steal shots the rest of the field can’t.
At +1800 for a player with this many top-five finishes against elite fields, the number is generous. Time to get a winner.
