The PGA TOUR season doesn't go by as fast as the NFL season, but it's hard to believe that we are already at the playoff finale. There are 30 golfers teeing it up this week at East Lake Golf Club with $20 million up for grabs.
This has been a tough event to bet on in the past, but the TOUR decided to get rid of the starting strokes. While there's a real argument to be made that golfers at the top of the FedExCup standings deserve an advantage at the TOUR Championship, the starting strokes essentially took two-thirds of the field out of play.
It's much easier to bet on this event without the starting strokes. And in 2028, we get the first match-play edition of the TOUR Championship, which is going to be incredible.
Let's take a look at my TOUR Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at East Lake Golf Club.
TOUR Championship Preview
East Lake Golf Club is a Par 70 that measures 7,440 yards. They restored the course before the 2024 edition of this event, and it made play significantly easier. In fact, this course has been one of the 10 easiest courses on TOUR in each of the last two years.
With little to no wind in the forecast this week, we can expect good scoring conditions once again.
The fairways here are tree-lined and average in width (30-32 yards). While this is a driver-heavy course (76% driver usage rate in 2025), this is far from a bomber's paradise. It's much easier to hit and hold these greens from the fairway.
The greens-in-regulation rate was 36% higher from the fairway than from the rough last year. Given the length of the course, it's best to have a combination of accuracy and distance, but I prefer accuracy over bombers.
The greens here are average in size (6,200 square feet) and feature bermudagrass. They are extremely fast (13 on the stimpmeter), which can lead to a high three-putt percentage. The greens are fairly easy to hit in regulation (especially from the fairway), and scrambling hasn't been too difficult.
Last year, the scrambling success rate here was much higher than the TOUR average. This doesn't mean you can bleed strokes around the green, but it's less important than most weeks.
This week is pretty simple — I'm looking for good total driving, good iron play, and good putting on Bermuda greens.
TOUR Championship Predictions, Picks
We had another slightly profitable week at the BMW Championship, but we still can't get any of our outright bets across the finish line. Let's change that this week at the TOUR Championship.
As always, the graphic below shows the results from 20,000 tournament simulations in my model. The three columns on the left show my model probabilities, the three middle columns show current market odds, and the three right columns show the differences. In other words, they show whether there's value in each market.
Patrick Cantlay To Win +1600 (DraftKings) / Top 5 +285 (DraftKings)
Patrick Cantlay cashed a top 5 bet for us last week, but it felt like he had a real chance to win on Sunday. As soon as he tied the lead on the back nine, he hit it in the water and made double bogey. He did make a push down the stretch, birdieing each of his final three holes, but it wasn't enough to catch Wyndham Clark.
Cantlay's tee-to-green game has been nothing short of impeccable. He gained 13 strokes tee-to-green last week alone and has gained at least five strokes on approach in each of his last three events. East Lake will test every facet of the game, but it especially demands an elite approach game. Cantlay has that in spades right now.
He's won the TOUR Championship before; he has an incredible track record in the playoffs, and he comes into the week in great form.
Collin Morikawa To Win +2050 (DraftKings) / Top 5 +350 (DraftKings)
Collin Morikawa is coming off a strong T4 finish at last week's BMW Championship. He gained nearly 6 strokes in ball striking, which is always an encouraging sign. He has now finished T7 or better in seven of his last 13 starts on the PGA TOUR.
East Lake is a tremendous fit for Morikawa's strengths. There's a big penalty for missing fairways here, so Morikawa's accuracy off the tee gives him a major advantage.
He's one of the best iron players in the world, and he has become a solid putter this season. He had the lowest 72-hole score here in 2024 (if you take out the starting strokes), so there's a lot to like about him heading into the final event of the season.
Russell Henley To Win +3000 (FanDuel) / Top 10 +160 (FanDuel)
Russell Henley has been one of the most consistent players on TOUR over the last few years. He's gone from a golfer who could only contend in weak fields to one who can contend in any field. In the last two years, he's won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Charles Schwab Challenge. He's also posted multiple top-10 finishes at the majors.
I'm valuing accuracy over distance off the tee this week, as there's a massive difference in greens-in-regulation rate from the fairway compared to the rough.
Henley is very accurate; he's a good iron player, and he's a great putter on Bermuda greens. He's finished in the top 5 at this event in each of the past two years, and this is essentially a home game for him, as he went to the University of Georgia and still lives in the state.
Sam Burns Top 5 +335 (BetRivers) / Top 10 +110 (FanDuel)
I thought long and hard about betting Sam Burns to win this week, but I feel like I've burned too much money chasing a win. However, his ability to get into contention every other week makes him a great top-5 and top-10 bet.
He's been the best putter on TOUR over the last few years, and he's first in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past three months.
If he can maintain that elite iron play and drop in as many putts as he usually does, there's no reason why he can't finish near the top of the leaderboard once again.
I do worry a bit about his driving accuracy, but that's why I'm not betting him to win. He seems to like it around East Lake, as he's finished T7, T13, and T4 here the last three years (without starting strokes).
Si Woo Kim Top 10 +150 (FanDuel)
Si Woo Kim has been featured on my betting cards all season. He's yet to pick up a win, but he's cashed plenty of top-10 bets for us. At this point, there's no reason to shy away from a good thing.
Like many of my bets this week, Kim gains his strokes off the tee through accuracy and not distance. I'm fine with slightly longer approach shots if they are coming from the short grass.
Kim has already racked up 11 top-10 finishes this season, so he should have no issue posting one more in a field of only 30 golfers. He's only played here once in the last five years (T17), but he's a much better golfer now than he's been at any point in his career.
Good luck this week!
