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TOUR Championship Betting Preview and Outright Picks

TOUR Championship Betting Preview and Outright Picks article feature image
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IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay

The 2026 PGA Tour season ends at East Lake in Atlanta, where the top 30 in the FedExCup standings play 72 holes of stroke play for a $40 million purse, $10 million to the winner, plus a five-year exemption.

For the second year running, there’s no staggered start: everyone begins at even par, low score wins.

The Field 

Scottie Scheffler arrives as points leader for a fifth straight year, alongside McIlroy, Schauffele, Åberg, Clark, Morikawa and Fleetwood. Six players are making their debut: Gotterup, Young, Bridgeman, Gerard, Reitan and Fitzpatrick — while Woodland, Cantlay and MacIntyre played their way in at the BMW. Ryan Fox squeezed in at No. 30.

The Course – East Lake

A par-70 at 7,440 yards, sixth-longest on Tour, with only two par-5s and nine par-4s stretching past 440 yards. Andrew Green’s 2023–24 restoration rebuilt the place entirely; trees cleared, all 18 greens redesigned, new turf throughout — using a 1949 aerial photo as his guide. Fairways were widened to 30 yards, greens switched to TifEagle Bermuda, and short-grass collection areas now reward creative short games. Rough is up an inch this year to 3.5 inches of Bermuda – greens run 12.5–13.

The Angle

Despite the length and the water on eight holes, East Lake has gotten softer: it’s played roughly 1.7 strokes under par per round over five years, with last year the easiest on record at –2.18. Scoring comes from the two reachable par-5s; the long par-4s and four par-3s (all 197+ yards) do the damage.

Outright Picks

Rolling with a two-pack this week, both priced at +1800.

Patrick Cantlay (+1800, FanDuel)

The ball-striking has been absurd. Nine strokes gained on approach last week, five the week before that, seven the week before that — three straight starts of elite iron play heading into a golf course that demands exactly that. East Lake is a par-70 with nine par-4s over 440 yards, and the field average on those holes sits at 4.07. You don’t fake your way around that. You hit quality approach shots from distance, or you bleed.

Cantlay ranks 4th on approach, and the profile fits everywhere else too: zoysia course history, Bermuda putting, proximity from 200+. Andrew Green’s restoration widened the fairways and made it easier to gain off the tee, which pushes even more of the separation onto the irons — right into Cantlay’s lane.

He’s also won here. That matters at a venue where 30 guys all start at even par and the course reveals itself without doglegs or tricks. This has been a long drought for a player of his caliber, and this is the spot. Big Cantlay guy, haven’t been on him much this year, and it would be something to cash him in the final event of the season.

Sam Burns (+1800, FanDuel)

Burns is in the exact spot Tommy Fleetwood was in a year ago. Knocking on the door all season, banking close call after close call, then finally kicking it in at East Lake to end the year. Look at the résumé: T4 at the Memorial, runner-up at the U.S. Open, third at The Open, third at the St. Jude. That’s not a player getting lucky into contention — that’s a player whose game is already there.

Now he gets back on Bermuda, and he’s far and away the best Bermuda putter on Tour. The greens here are TifEagle Bermuda, sitting lower and playing larger post-restoration, rolling 12.5 to 13 when firm. Green’s expanded hole locations and new short-grass collection areas mean more variety around the complexes and more chances for a great putter to steal shots the rest of the field can’t.

At +1800 for a player with this many top-five finishes against elite fields, the number is generous. Time to get a winner.

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About the Author
Jake ZachVerified Action Expert

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