The final event of the PGA Tour's Florida swing commences Thursday with the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida.
While this tournament features a couple of big names competing for the trophy, there are more ways to bet on the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday. For more instant gratification, we turn to the First Round Leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite 2026 Valspar Championship first-round leader picks and bets for Thursday.
2026 Valspar Championship: First Round Leader Picks, Bets
Xander Schauffele +2600 (DraftKings)
After a pair of underwhelming performances to begin the 2026 season, Xander Schauffele has returned to form. He has recorded four consecutive top-25 finishes, culminating with a third-place finish last week at The Players Championship.
Schauffele has gained true strokes in every category in each of his past three tournaments and is one of the hottest golfers in this field. That momentum could carry into Thursday at the Copperhead Course, a venue that suits his skill set.
Putting is arguably the most important factor this week as roughly 38% of strokes gained at Copperhead come on the greens, a high mark by PGA Tour standards. Last year, each of the top three finishers ranked inside the top three in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
This profile favors Schauffele, who ranks in the 83rd percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. It is therefore not surprising that he has performed well at this event, finishing inside the top 12 in each of his three career appearances at Copperhead.
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300 (DraftKings)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Matt Fitzpatrick. Like Schauffele, Fitzpatrick brings elite putting ability to Copperhead, ranking in the 87th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting.
Success on the greens is often supported by strong long-iron play. Last season, 20.7% of approach shots came from the 175-200-yard range, the highest distribution of any 25-yard grouping at this course.
Entering this week, Fitzpatrick ranks nearly 3% above the PGA Tour average in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance. He also enters the tournament in strong form following a runner-up finish at The Players Championship.
That momentum could carry into Thursday’s opening round at a course where he finished T5 in 2022._
