We've had a string of profitable weeks in placement markets since introducing the model simulations, but we still haven't had any success in the outright market. We have two events left in the FedExCup Playoffs, so why not end the season with a couple of outright wins? As always, we'll have plenty of placement bets as well.
The top 50 in the FedExCup standings are set to tee it up in St. Louis this week. All 50 golfers have secured their PGA TOUR status for next year and a spot in all of the Signature Events. After this week's event, only the top 30 in the standings will move on to play the TOUR Championship at East Lake, where $40 million is up for grabs.
But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves; let's focus our attention on this week's BMW Championship.
Let's take a look at my BMW Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Bellerive Country Club.
BMW Championship Preview
Unlike most PGA TOUR events, the BMW Championship likes to switch the venue each year. For the first time since the 2018 PGA Championship, Bellerive Country Club is set to host a PGA TOUR event.
At that PGA Championship, Brooks Koepka held off Tiger Woods to win by two strokes with a score of 16-under par. The course is a tad longer now, but there haven't been any major renovations since the 2005-06 Rees Jones renovation, so it's essentially the same layout that we saw in 2018.
Let’s talk about the specifics of Bellerive Country Club. The course is a Par 70 that measures 7,448 yards. The leaderboard here in 2018 was littered with long drivers of the ball, which is to be expected on a course of this length.
However, I will note that some of the length is hiding in two long Par 3s and in two likely unreachable Par 5s. If you look at the approach shot distributions at this event in 2018, 40% of approach shots came from 125-175 yards, which is well above TOUR average.
While I am weighing Driving Distance in my model this week, I will not avoid the shorter hitters if they still project well. The fairways here are narrow and tree-lined, and the rough is expected to be thick. In 2018, the Greens in Regulation rate from the fairway was 26% higher than it was from the rough.
So while I expect distance to play a factor this week, being able to hit the fairway should also be a major advantage. I’m not shying away from golfers who gain strokes off the tee with accuracy.
The greens at Bellerive are massive (7,600 square feet), but they're heavily contoured and divided into multiple sections. Hitting the green isn't necessarily enough, as players need to put their approach shots on the correct portion of the putting surface to give themselves reasonable birdie looks.
Scrambling wasn’t overly difficult at this event in 2018, but a tidy short game is always a positive on a course that is expected to be challenging.
If I had to completely ignore one of the strokes gained metrics this week, it would be putting. I expect the course to be difficult, which typically demands more from ball striking than putting. I still want golfers who can convert their opportunities, but I'm much more interested in how they get themselves into position to make those putts.
BMW Championship Predictions, Picks
The biggest question this week is what to do with Scottie Scheffler.
We placed a hefty Top 10 bet on him last week at -180, and I mentioned that I wanted no part of the standard outright market. While my picks didn't come close to winning the tournament, it was nice to know that I at least bet the right market — the winner without Scheffler.
We basically have three options for outrights this week:
- We can bet Scheffler and call it a week.
- We can bet the standard outright market and hope Scheffler doesn't win again.
- We can bet the winner without Scheffler market.
While fading Scheffler is always scary, the math supports betting the standard outright market this week, especially with the golfers on my betting card.
As usual, I ran 20,000 simulations for this week's event. Here are my model probabilities compared to the current market odds. The last three columns show the betting value based on the simulations.
Ludvig Aberg to Win +1800 (FanDuel) / Top 5 +350 (DraftKings)
It's strange how Aberg has gone from an industry favorite to the target of jokes on Twitter. I still believe in the talent and his ability to win on the PGA TOUR.
It's not like he's played poorly this season, either, as he's racked up eight Top 10s. He's one of the best ball strikers in the field, which should play well on what I expect to be a difficult golf course.
Over the last six months, he's eighth in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach.
He finished T7 at last week's event, where he gained nearly six strokes ball striking and the course should fit him perfectly; he just needs to find a good week on the greens.
Sam Burns to Win +2000 (FanDuel) / Top 5 +355 (DraftKings)
It feels like there's not a week that goes by where Burns isn't in contention, yet he's still searching for his first win of the season.
He's certainly a proven winner, with five career victories on the PGA TOUR. He's been arguably the best putter in the world over the last few years, and now he's starting to stripe his irons.
Over the last three months, no golfer in this week's field has gained more strokes on approach. He's fairly long off the tee and has also been positive around the green over the last three months.
This seems like a fair number for a golfer who is consistently in the mix on Sundays.
Patrick Cantlay to Win +3000 (bet365) / Top 5 +550 (Caesars)
Cantlay typically projects as a better DFS target than an outright bet, but I'm trusting my gut with this pick.
For whatever reason, he seems to play his best golf during the FedExCup Playoffs. In fact, his last win on TOUR came during the playoffs at the 2022 BMW Championship.
He's coming off a T12 last week where he gained 5.9 strokes ball striking, and he's now gained at least that many strokes ball striking in three of his last six events.
Over the last six months, he's top 20 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
All he needs is one good week with the putter, and I think he can pick up his first win in four years.
Si Woo Kim Top 5 +500 (DraftKings) / Top 10 +220 (FanDuel)
Kim finished solo 2nd last week in Memphis and has now posted three Top 7 finishes in his last four events. He doesn’t have a win this season, but he’s consistently been in contention.
Even though this course is extremely long for a Par 70, some of that length is hidden in two long Par 3s and two likely unreachable Par 5s.
In 2018, the Greens in Regulation rate from the fairway was 26% higher than it was from the rough, so I expect Total Driving to be especially important this week. Kim is one of the best in the field when it comes to that.
Along with that, he’s also an elite iron player as well as an excellent scrambler.
He missed the cut here in 2018, but he’s a completely different golfer at this stage of his career.
Xander Schauffele Top 10 +150 (FanDuel)
Much like his friend Cantlay, Schauffele always seems to shine during the FedExCup Playoffs. Maybe these two just love money.
Our goal here is to have fun betting on golf while hopefully turning a profit.
Schauffele got off to a slow start this season, but he's now finished T12 or better in nine of his last 14 events. In his most recent starts, he finished runner-up at the Rocket Classic and T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
For years, he's been one of the most complete golfers on TOUR, which has served him well on all types of courses, especially difficult ones like Bellerive.
This isn't a sexy bet — only +150 — but my model says it should hit 51% of the time.
Wyndham Clark Top 10 +235 (DraftKings)
Clark isn’t a golfer that I have bet often this year. In fact, I faded him during his great stretch of golf and then decided to bet him at the Rocket Classic (MC).
Believe it or not, I’m not sure there’s actually a correlation between my betting card and his results on the course. I try to avoid biases as much as possible, even though it’s difficult.
I’m back on Clark this week after he gained 4.6 strokes ball striking en route to a T5 finish last week. He’s long off the tee, his iron play continues to improve, and he’s had one of the best short games on TOUR over the last six months.
I'm not asking for much, Wyndham, just a top 10 finish in a field of 50 golfers.
Good luck this week!
