The course is TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, where the first event of the FedEx Cup takes place.
Seventy of the best golfers in the PGA gather, where we begin the hunt for the FedEx Cup. TPC Southwind is a Par 70 course spanning just under 7,300 yards. Last year's winner, Justin Rose, is listed at +6000 to repeat.
Let's dive into our staff's FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
First Round Leader Pick: Sam Burns (+2800)
By: Tony Sartori
This course plays to Burns' strengths.
This season, he ranks in the 94th percentile in strokes gained: approach. Burns also handles his mid- to long irons well, which is key at TPC Southwind.
Last year, nearly 42% of approach shots came from the 150-200-yard range, well above the PGA Tour average. Entering this week, Burns ranks in the 89th percentile in strokes gained: approach from that distance.
He also enters this week in strong form with five straight top-20 finishes, including two consecutive top-three finishes at major championships.
Outright Winner Pick: Si Woo Kim (+3500)
By: Spencer Aguiar
I may (not 100%) be giving up on Tommy Fleetwood, but my newfound ways only know so much change when it comes to Si Woo Kim. Listeners of the Action podcast that I do with Michael Calabrese and Kyle Murray might be ready to pull their hair out on this take. I know how you feel… I willingly do this to myself every week. The only difference is that I now feel no pain with my actions.
TPC Southwind is a unique course because it emphasizes ball-striking and reduces some of the putting returns. Tee-to-green answers from within the data will always 1. generate a reduction in putting and 2. give an overall enhancement of finding fairways and striking your approach shots well from within the critical distances. That is something that the 18th-ranked player in the world can do at a level as high as anyone.
My math isn't as strong as it has been on him in some tests throughout the year. Maybe it is the bottom-of-the-barrel putting that can't be fully ignored. Perhaps it is the comp courses that have generated mediocre returns from him in the past. Regardless of the reason, though, Kim's ball-striking can't be ignored at a venue that has delivered winners like Will Zalatoris, Lucas Glover, Hideki Matsuyama and other "team no-putt" stalwarts.
I know my ways are troubling, but I will always trust the math in these gross spots. Kim just happens to be the leader of those bad decisions.
Top 10 Pick: Scottie Scheffler -180 — 2u)
By: Derek Farnsworth
I officially have this as a two-unit bet, and it might end up being my biggest golf bet of the year (in terms of dollars wagered).
Scottie Scheffler is typically priced to a point where he doesn't offer any value, but his Top-10 number at -180 shows up as a positive value in my model this week.
Even before I get into his statistics, you could bet this solely on the fact that Scheffler has finished in the top 10 in 27 of his last 33 events on the tour.
At -180, we need Scheffler to finish in the top 10 64% of the time. In his last 33 events, Scheffler has finished in the top 10 82% of the time. And keep in mind, there are only 70 golfers in the field this week.
Scheffler is accurate off the tee, the best iron player in the world, an elite scrambler, and has become a very good putter. He's also finished third and fourth here the last two years.
