In the words of Jim Mora during his famous rant, "PLAYOFFS?!"
That is exactly what we will be talking about here for the first leg of the 2026 FedExCup Playoffs.
Let's dive into my FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Picks
Cameron Young 25/1
Was Cameron Young proper as a single-digit bet last week at the Rocket Classic? Probably not. But I would give a similar answer here: "The inflation we have seen from him for this event is too much for someone who struck the ball extremely well at the Wyndham but failed to make a single putt all week."
I always like to go back to see where my model was strong or weak on certain players during past iterations of a board. Young's fifth-place finish here last year was better than I projected him for that event, but I don't think that is a negative, given his bullish expectations this week that placed him second for ball-striking and third for Weighted Tee-To-Green.
There is probably a middle ground that makes more sense for where this price should inevitably land, but it is worth noting that my model ranked him as the third most likely player to win this tournament (behind Scheffler and Fleetwood). As everyone who has been following me all year with Fleetwood knows, I don't know if I can trust those returns anymore. He is breaking me weekly. I do know that I want to trust my math on Young, though, who has been close again to another title after a slow middle of his season.
Si Woo Kim 35/1
I may (not 100%) be giving up on Fleetwood, but my newfound ways only know so much change when it comes to Si Woo Kim. Listeners of the Action podcast that I do with Michael Calabrese and Kyle Murray might be ready to pull their hair out on this take. I know how you feel… I willingly do this to myself every week. The only difference is that I now feel no pain with my actions.
TPC Southwind is a unique course because it emphasizes ball-striking and reduces some of the putting returns. Tee-to-green answers from within the data will always 1. generate a reduction in putting and 2. give an overall enhancement of finding fairways and striking your approach shots well from within the critical distances. That is something that the 18th-ranked player in the world can do at a level as high as anyone.
My math isn't as strong as it has been on him in some tests throughout the year. Maybe it is the bottom-of-the-barrel putting that can't be fully ignored. Perhaps it is the comp courses that have generated mediocre returns from him in the past. Regardless of the reason, though, Kim's ball-striking can't be ignored at a venue that has delivered winners like Will Zalatoris, Lucas Glover, Hideki Matsuyama and other "team no-putt" stalwarts.
I know my ways are troubling, but I will always trust the math in these gross spots. Kim just happens to be the leader of those bad decisions.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Matchup Pick
J.J. Spaun -110 Over Min Woo Lee
It is the same sentiment every single week when I talk about matchup profiles and what I am trying to attack in the market. We didn't get to dive deep into it last week with Nicolai Hojgaard over Ryo Hisatsune because of the ample movement of that wager before we got a chance to touch on it in this piece; however, my general rule of thumb is always to pinpoint the volatility of our opponent and see if we can find value with someone that we are okay with backing on the slate.
That viewpoint is a little harder to maneuver through this week because of the no-cut nature of the contest. All golfers are going to have four rounds to try and find some upside on the slate, and it does ring very true here for a high-risk, high-reward sort of name like Min Woo Lee.
Lee loses some of the overall playability that you would hope to see when water drains his scrambling potential. The iron play is near the bottom of this board. His driver is both good and bad when it comes to upside, ranking top 10 for Driver-Heavy and Hard-To-Hit-Fairways and bottom 10 for High Missed Fairway Penalty + High Rough Penalty. There is a middle there that levels this answer out marginally when you add in his Bermuda putting acumen, but I am hoping that his boom-or-bust nature sinks him at some point this week.
It is never perfect to give a player like Lee four rounds to find that potential, but the poor TPC production is at least a sign that these courses have not historically suited his game. My model also ranked him 60th last year during his 68th-place finish, if we are looking for additional positives in the metrics.
