After closing out the Travelers Championship in a head-to-head playoff, we head to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL, for the John Deere Classic.
While many golfers look to get into form prior to heading overseas, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite John Deere Classic first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Picks, Predictions
First-Round Leader Pick: Ben Griffin (+3000, DraftKings)
TPC Deere Run is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour schedule, featuring wide fairways and large greens. Because of its accessibility, two key factors stand out: wedge play and putting.
Last year, 12.9% of approach shots came from the 100-125-yard range, well above the PGA Tour average. Meanwhile, Brian Campbell and Emiliano Grillo, who battled in a playoff, both finished inside the top nine in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
This setup makes Ben Griffin a strong option this week. One of the tournament favorites, Griffin enters in good form with six top-17 finishes in his past eight events.
Griffin is an excellent wedge and iron player, gaining true strokes on approach in each of his past four tournaments. Entering this week, he ranks in the 84th percentile in strokes gained: approach and in the 84th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 100-150 yards.
He is an even stronger putter, ranking in the 97th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting.
It is therefore not surprising that he finished T5 here in 2024, and he has only improved since then.
First-Round Leader Pick: Tom Kim (+5000, DraftKings)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Tom Kim. Like Griffin, Kim fits this course well.
Entering this week, he ranks in the 87th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach and in the 94th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 100-150 yards. As noted, the ease of hitting greens turns this week into a putting contest.
Kim has proven capable on the greens, ranking in the top third of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He also enters in strong form, coming off his best finish of the year: a third-place showing at the U.S. Open against significantly tougher competition.
