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The Open Championship Round 4: Expert Predictions, Picks, Odds for Sunday, July 19

The Open Championship Round 4: Expert Predictions, Picks, Odds for Sunday, July 19 article feature image
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IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Rory McIlroy

The fourth and final round of the 2026 Open Championship gets underway on Sunday at Royal Birkdale GC in Southport, England.

Sam Burns holds a two-stroke lead over the rest of the field at 10-under par after the third round. With one days remaining, Burns looks to secure his first major championship.

Here are my picks and The Open Championship Round 4 best bets. Not only that, be sure to check out VegasInsider's breakdown on The Open as well.

The Open Championship Round 4 Best Bets

Rory McIlroy Top-20 (-105 at DraftKings)

After a poor opening round, Rory McIlroy has tried to claw back with two straight under-par rounds. Another improvement on Sunday would likely place him inside the top 20, and at -105, it's worth backing one of the best golfers in the world to do just that.

Royal Birkdale places a premium on accuracy. The fairways are narrow, and the course is lined with deep bunkers that are difficult to escape.

Avoiding those hazards is essential, and players need to hit fairways and greens to prevent costly mistakes. That setup makes McIlroy a strong target in this market.

Entering this week, McIlroy ranks 36th on the PGA Tour this season in greens-in-regulation percentage.

His driving accuracy has been inconsistent at times, but it had been improving prior to this week.

McIlroy has been more accurate off the tee than the field average in each of his past two tournaments, including last week’s T7 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open.


Russell Henley Top-20 (+360 at DraftKings)

Another golfer worth targeting in this market is Russell Henley. He's just two shots back from joining those in the top-20, making +360 a worthwhile swing to take.

Like McIlroy, Henley fits this course well.

This season, he ranks first on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage and 57th in greens in regulation percentage.

Since Royal Birkdale last hosted this major championship, the course has undergone renovations, including partially raised greens. This change makes the putting surfaces firmer and more difficult to control, increasing the importance of greenside play.

A strong greenside player, Henley ranks in the 75th percentile in strokes gained: around the green.

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