This week, we head to Royal Birkdale GC in Southport, England, for The Open.
While many golfers look to get into form over the course of the tournament, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite The Open first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
The Open First-Round Leader Picks
First-Round Leader Pick: Rory McIlroy (+2200 at BetMGM)
Royal Birkdale places a premium on accuracy. The fairways are narrow, and the course is lined with deep bunkers that are difficult to escape.
Avoiding those hazards is essential, and players will need to hit fairways and greens to prevent costly mistakes. That setup makes Rory McIlroy a strong target in this market.
Entering this week, McIlroy ranks 36th on the PGA Tour this season in greens-in-regulation percentage.
His driving accuracy has been inconsistent at times, but it appears to be improving.
McIlroy has been more accurate off the tee than the field average in each of his past two tournaments, including last week’s T7 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. He was also tied for the first-round lead in that event.
Fast starts are nothing new for McIlroy, who has been the first-round leader twice at this tournament (2010 and 2014), and this week could bring more of the same.
First-Round Leader Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+5000 at BetMGM)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Ludvig Aberg. Like McIlroy, Aberg fits this course well.
This season, he ranks 20th on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage and 40th in driving accuracy percentage.
Since the last time Royal Birkdale hosted this major championship, the course has undergone renovations that include partially raised greens. This change makes the putting surfaces firmer and more difficult to control, increasing the importance of greenside play.
Aberg is more than capable in that area, ranking in the 73rd percentile in strokes gained: around the green.
