The fourth and final round of the 2026 Valspar Championship gets underway on Sunday at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Sungjae Im leads the Valspar Championship after the third round at 11-under par. He holds a two-stroke lead over the rest of the field, and he is likely to hold that position for the rest of the tournament.
Here is my pick for the Valspar Championship Round 4 best bet for Sunday.
Valspar Championship Round 4 Odds, Best Bet
Sungjae Im Outright Winner (+130 at BetMGM)
This tournament became far less wide open after Sungjae Im’s birdie on the 18th hole to close Saturday’s third round. That gave Im a two-stroke lead over the field, and given the expected difficulty of the Copperhead Course on Sunday, it is more likely to take a collapse from Im than a surge from a challenger to overtake him.
The key question now is whether Im can close it out. There are several reasons to believe he can.
First, he has been consistent throughout the tournament, shooting 69 or better in each of the first three rounds. He is in position to go wire to wire and, aside from a brief stretch during Friday’s second round, has effectively been the favorite since taking the lead.
Second, putting is arguably the most important factor this week, as roughly 38% of strokes gained at Copperhead come on the greens, a high mark by PGA Tour standards. Last year, each of the top three finishers ranked inside the top three in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
This profile favors Im, who ranks in the 70th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. It is therefore not surprising that he has performed well at this event, finishing inside the top 30 in two of his three career appearances at Copperhead, including a T4 finish.
Success on the greens is often supported by strong long-iron play. Last season, 20.7% of approach shots came from the 175-200-yard range, the highest distribution of any 25-yard grouping at this course.
Im finished last season nearly 3% above the PGA Tour average in birdie-or-better percentage on approach shots from that range.
