On Saturday, nine horses will line up at the Saratoga Race Course starting gates for the 158th running of the Belmont Stakes.
I built a race simulator using my own power rankings and Monte Carlo simulation to help you handicap the field, identify edges against the morning line, and watch the chaos of the nine-horse race unfold one simulated run at a time.
Each time you hit "New Sim", the tool will generate one of 10,000 random simulations of the 2026 Belmont Stakes, and hopefully, those visualizations and the accompanying data will help you to make your race selections.
The simulator also shows projected exotics payouts based on live exacta betting pool data. If you'd like to calculate the approximate ROI for your ticket without the visualization, you can experiment with the projected payout tool below (the pool data should update regularly).
Lastly, you can find a table with my fair odds and projected finishing odds for each horse (which powers the simulator), along with notes on what the methodology includes and excludes.
Post time is Saturday at 7:04 p.m. ET. Until then, try your luck against the simulator.
Belmont Stakes Simulator
Projected Payouts
Projected Fair Odds
About the Model
Each horse has a base ability score that combines Beyer Speed Figures (best + average), TimeformUS pace fingerprint (early vs. late pace), class, distance/surface fit, jockey and trainer quality, form trend, and workout sharpness.
For each of the 10,000 sims, the model samples a pace shape that adds day-of variance by accounting for trip events (e.g., bad starting break, wide trip for outside posts, used-up clearing for outside speed on a fast pace, boxed in for inside stalkers).
