On Saturday, 14 horses will line up at the Laurel Park starting gates for the 151st running of the Preakness Stakes.
I built a race simulator using my own power rankings and Monte Carlo simulation to help you handicap the field, identify edges against the morning line, and watch the chaos of the 14-horse race unfold one simulated run at a time.
Each time you hit "New Sim", the tool will generate one of 10,000 random simulations of the Preakness, and hopefully, those visualizations and the accompanying data will help you to make your race selections. The current pay
The simulator also shows projected exotics payouts based on prior Preakness exotics payouts. Closer to Saturday, I will add a projected payout tool below to approximate the ROI for your tickets.
Lastly, you can find a table with my fair odds and projected finishing odds for each horse (which powers the simulator), along with notes on what the methodology includes and excludes.
Post time is Saturday at 6:50 p.m. ET. Until then, try your luck against the simulator.
Preakness Stakes Simulator
Projected Fair Odds
About the Model
Each horse has a base ability score that combines Beyer Speed Figures (best + average), TimeformUS pace fingerprint (early vs. late pace), class, distance/surface fit, jockey and trainer quality, form trend, and workout sharpness.
For each of the 10,000 sims, the model samples a pace shape that adds day-of variance by factoring for trip events (e.g., bad starting break, wide trip for outside posts, used-up clearing for outside speed on fast pace, boxed-in for inside stalkers).
