A very different Preakness this year in 2026. The Preakness will be run at Laurel Park on Saturday — the first time since 1908 that the race won't be at Pimlico, and Pimlico's first miss in 117 straight years.
The only previous non-Pimlico runnings were Morris Park (Bronx, 1890) and Gravesend Racetrack (Brooklyn, 1894–1908). The move is due to the reconstruction of Pimlico. A very important caveat as we run through some notes, stats and trends.
A lot of the Pimlico data is largely useless at Laurel. The track configurations are different — Laurel's main track is a mile and 600 feet (approximately 1 1/8 miles) with sweeping turns, while Pimlico is a tighter one-mile oval. Stretch run, turn radius, and where horses are entering and exiting turns at 1 3/16 miles will all be different.
Horse-by-Horse Quick Analysis
Tier 1 — Hits Most Winning Trends
- #9 Iron Honor (9-2) — Morning-line favorite. Chad Brown trains, and Brown has won the Preakness twice (Cloud Computing 2017, Early Voting 2022). Last 3 Beyers 76-90-95 — the 95 came three back; the recent 76 was a 7th in the Wood after early trouble. Blinkers come off Saturday. By Nyquist (3rd in 2016 Preakness).
- #1 Taj Mahal (5-1) — Undefeated 3-for-3, all at Laurel, including the Federico Tesio. The only horse in the field who has raced over this surface — a tangible edge with no Pimlico Preakness data to lean on. Beyers 92-86-73. By Nyquist.
- #6 Chip Honcho (5-1) — Steve Asmussen, who's won the Preakness twice (Curlin 2007, Rachel Alexandra 2009). Beyers 73-92-78. David Grening's note: If he gets back to his Risen Star form, he can win this.
- #12 Incredibolt (5-1) — Sixth in the Kentucky Derby in his last start. Beyers 89-88-58. David Aragona's "one to beat." Derby effort confirmed his quality and stamina at the distance.
Tier 2 — Mixed Profiles
- #2 Ocelli (6-1) — Ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby at 70-1 after drawing into the field two days before the race. A $12,000 yearling purchase who has now banked $609,800 in seven career starts. Still a maiden — record of 0-1-4 from those seven starts, with show finishes in both the Wood Memorial and the Derby. No maiden has won the Preakness since Refund in 1888.
- #10 Napoleon Solo (8-1) — Beyer of 95 (third back) ties Iron Honor's best single figure in the field. Closer profile in what looks like a speed-laden race — only 4 of the last 21 Preakness winners came from more than 4 lengths off the pace, and David Aragona's question is direct: "Can he survive the pace?"
- #7 The Hell We Did (15-1) — Finished 2nd in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April. Trained by Todd Fincher, Luis Saez rides. By Authentic (2020 Derby winner, 2nd in the 2020 Preakness as favorite). Light on seasoning at this level.
- #5 Talkin (20-1) — 3rd in the Blue Grass. Beyers 87-85-57. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount. By Good Magic (2nd in 2018 Derby).
- #11 Corona de Oro (30-1) — 3rd in the Lexington. Beyers 80-87-92 trending the right direction. John Velazquez rides. The question is the distance.
- #4 Robusta (30-1) — Two trend tailwinds despite the price: Calumet Farm owns him, and Calumet leads all Preakness owners with 8 wins (last was Oxbow, 2013). Trainer Doug O'Neill won the 2012 Preakness with I'll Have Another. But Robusta ran 14th in the Derby and never factored on pace; Beyers 72-76-89 trail the contenders.
Tier 3 — Trend Headwinds
- #13 Great White (15-1) — Gray gelding facing one historical headwind: no gelding has won since Funny Cide in 2003 (just 7 ever, none in 23 years). The gray angle isn't a true negative. Seize the Grey won this race in 2024. Beyers 72-84-71. Scratched at the gate before the Derby.
- #3 Crupper (30-1) — Won the Bathhouse Row, but Aragona called it a weak field. Beyers 80-63-68 — that 63 is among the field's weakest. Likely pace casualty.
- #8 Bull by the Horns (30-1) — Beyers 70-69-68 are the weakest profile in the field. The best race came on synthetic. Closer style in what looks like a speed-laden race would need a total pace collapse.
- #14 Pretty Boy Miah (15-1) — Beyers 92-89-63 look fast on top, but every win has come around one turn and he's never raced beyond a mile. Last race was a starter allowance. Tall order at 1 3/16.
The Favorite
Through 150 runnings of the Preakness, the 1918 race was contested in two divisions, producing 151 total winners — 74 of those winners have gone off as the betting choice. Roughly half, much higher hit rate than the Derby.
Since pari-mutuel wagering arrived at Pimlico in 1911, 28 favorites have started at less than even money. 18 have won.
Here are the shortest-priced winners in Preakness history (in American odds): Citation (1948, -1000), Spectacular Bid (1979, -1000), Count Fleet (1943, -667), Big Brown (2008, -500), Native Dancer (1953, -500), Secretariat (1973, -333), Nashua (1955, -333). Each one was such a heavy favorite the public effectively had to lay 3-to-1, 5-to-1, even 10-to-1 just to back them.
Recent favorites have been brutal. Of the last 10 Preakness favorites, only two won — Justify (2018) and Journalism (2025). And no Derby winner has won the Preakness in seven years running, since Justify swept in 2018.
Last 10 Preakness Favorites:
2025 — Journalism (+160) — 1st
2024 — Mystik Dan (+240) — 2nd
2023 — Mage (+140) — 3rd
2022 — Epicenter (+120) — 2nd
2021 — Medina Spirit (+240) — 3rd
2020 — Authentic (+150) — 2nd
2019 — Improbable (+250) — 6th
2018 — Justify (-250) — 1st
2017 — Always Dreaming (+120) — 8th
2016 — Nyquist (-143) — 3rd
(Again, important note: this race is NOT at Pimlico, it is at Laurel Park)
The Laurel Question
The headline stat is going to be a story by itself. Since Laurel's main track was widened from 75 feet to 95 feet in 2005, only six dirt races have been run at 1 3/16 miles — and from that small sample, two things stand out:
• Zero favorites have won at 1 3/16 miles on the current configuration
• Zero horses have won from post 1
The six 1 3/16-mile races at modern Laurel:
Aug. 6, 2022 — Bald Eagle Derby. Vance Scholars wins gate-to-wire at 12-1.
Mar. 5, 2010 — Starter allowance. Patch of Fire wins at 5-1, closing from 12.5 lengths back.
Oct. 4, 2008 — Maryland Million Classic. Cuba wins at 6-5 (the second choice) stalking the pace.
Oct. 13, 2007 — Maryland Million Classic. Evil Storm wins at 11-1; 8-5 favorite Five Steps loses.
Oct. 14, 2006 — Maryland Million Classic. Due wins at 9-1 from worst-to-first; 3-10 favorite Cherokee's Boy finishes 5th.
Oct. 15, 2005 — Maryland Million Classic. Play Bingo wins at the wire after trailing by 22.5 lengths.
At 1 1/8 miles, two-turn dirt routes (closest comparable distance — 65 races):
• Speed horses (on/near lead): 24 wins (37%)
• Closers (4+ lengths back): 24 wins (37%)
• Stalkers (1–4 lengths off): 17 wins (26%)
• Inside posts 1–3: 36 of 65 winners (55%)
Post-Derby Looks
Only three horses from the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be competing in Maryland: Ocelli (3rd place), Incredibolt (6th) and Robusta (14th). Let's look at some trends for Kentucky Derby horses recently who made it over to the next crown of the Triple Crown.
Looking back through the last seven Preakness winners, five skipped the Derby entirely. Only Journalism (2025) and War of Will (2019) ran in Louisville first:
2025 — Journalism (ran Derby, 2nd)
2024 — Seize the Grey (skipped)
2023 — National Treasure (skipped)
2022 — Early Voting (skipped)
2021 — Rombauer (skipped)
2020 — Swiss Skydiver (filly, ran the Oaks)
2019 — War of Will (ran Derby, 7th)
Ocelli: If Ocelli can pull off the upset at Laurel Park, he would become the first maiden horse to win the Preakness Stakes since 1888. Only six maidens have ever won, all before 1900.
Incredibolt: If you're looking for the cleanest "Derby loser wins Preakness" precedent for any horse Saturday, it's Incredibolt. Two of the last 16 Preakness winners finished exactly 6th in the Derby:
- Oxbow (2013) — 6th in Derby behind Orb, then wire-to-wire Preakness winner at 15-1 for Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens
- Lookin at Lucky (2010) — 6th in Derby (as the Derby favorite), then bounced back to win the Preakness at 3-1 for Bob Baffert
Robusta: Robusta is the longest historical reach of the three. Coming out of a 14th-place Derby finish, beaten by more than 17 lengths, is not a winning profile. No Preakness winner in modern history has come back from that deep in the Derby.
Money To Money?
Let's dive into Ocelli a bit more after their 70-1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby and then falling into the money, finishing 3rd place. Looking at every Derby third-place finisher who tried the Preakness in the modern era, none has done it at odds anywhere near 70-1:
2020 — Mr. Big News finished 3rd in the Derby at 46-1, then ran 7th in the Preakness at 12-1
2017 — Battle of Midway finished 3rd in the Derby at around 40-1 — skipped the Preakness for the Belmont
2007 — Curlin finished 3rd in the Derby at 5-1, then won the Preakness at 9-2 (the most recent Derby-third-to-Preakness-win)
For broader context, recent Derby trifecta longshots who attempted any subsequent Triple Crown leg have generally regressed:
2022 — Rich Strike won the Derby at 80-1, skipped the Preakness, finished 6th in the Belmont
2019 — Country House promoted to Derby winner at 65-1, never raced again
2009 — Mine That Bird won the Derby at 50-1, finished 2nd in the Preakness — the best Preakness performance from any 50-1+ Derby in-the-money horse in modern memory
2005 — Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1, finished 3rd in the Preakness; Closing Argument finished 2nd at 71-1, skipped the Preakness
The Outliers
Let's start with the grays.
The Preakness has been markedly more welcoming to grays than the Derby. The official media guide records four "gray" winners plus Silver Charm (1997), the first horse classified under the Jockey Club's modernized "Gray/Roan" category. Named historical grays include Native Dancer (1953) — the "Gray Ghost of Sagamore" — and Spectacular Bid (1979).
Most recent gray/roan winner: Seize the Grey, 2024, who won at $21.60 for the late D. Wayne Lukas. So unlike the Derby (no gray winner since Giacomo 2005), the Preakness saw a gray winner just two years ago.
2026 field matches:
- #8 Bull by the Horns (30-1) — gray/roan colt by Essential Quality.
- #13 Great White (15-1) — gray/roan gelding by Volatile.
Next up, fillies in the Preakness — of which there are none this year, so we can keep this short.
Six fillies have ever won the Preakness, recently Swiss Skydiver in 2020. Fifty-six fillies have started in the race with Saffie Osborne riding Heart of Honor (5th) in 2025, the most recent female jockey to ride in the Preakness.
Let's talk Geldings now.
Seven geldings have ever won the Preakness, the last being Funny Cide in 2003 — 23 years ago. The others: Prairie Bayou (1993), Holiday (1914), Buskin (1913), Layminster (1910), Don Enrique (1907), and Shirley (1876). Geldings were barred from the Preakness from 1920 through 1934.
This year we have two geldings in the field.
2026 field matches:
- #13 Great White (15-1) — Also a gray horse.
- #14 Pretty Boy Miah (15-1)
Now, the maiden trend. A maiden has not won the Preakness since Refund in 1888 — 138 years ago. The six all-time maiden winners came before 1900 — Bodexpress was the most recent maiden to even attempt the race in 2019.
2026 field match:
- #2 Ocelli (6-1) — the lone maiden in the field. Winless in seven career starts, with one second and four thirds. Per Horse Racing Nation: "Ocelli, the lone maiden in the projected Preakness field." A win would end the longest active drought in any classic American Thoroughbred race.
Finally, the Sire angle.
Ten Preakness winners have themselves sired Preakness winners: Bold Ruler (Secretariat), Bold Venture (Assault), Gallant Fox (Omaha), Man O' War (War Admiral), Polynesian (Native Dancer), Citation (Fabius), Native Dancer (Kauai King), Secretariat (Risen Star), Summer Squall (Charismatic), and Curlin (Exaggerator, Journalism).
Curlin is the active name to watch — and the sire of last year's winner Journalism.
2026 field matches (direct sons of past Preakness winners): None. No horse in the field is a direct son of a Preakness winner.
2026 field match (Curlin grandson): #5 Talkin (20-1) — by Good Magic, who is by Curlin.
Two others in the field — #2 Ocelli (6-1) and #6 Chip Honcho (5-1) — are by Connect, who is by Smart Strike (Curlin's sire). So they're not Curlin grandsons, but they share the same male-line family.
All The Jockeys
The Preakness can be won by the favorite or by a 15-1 shot — but it's increasingly won by the same handful of riders.
Five of the seven jockeys who've won the race since 2019 are in Saturday's gate, including the riders of three of the six recent double-digit-odds winners listed above. Add John Velazquez's bid at age 54 to become the oldest Preakness-winning jockey in history, and the rider angles may be the most loaded part of the form.
Five of the seven most recent Preakness-winning jockeys are riding Saturday. The two who aren't: Rispoli (rode 2025 winner Journalism) and Albarado (rode 2020 winner Swiss Skydiver).
Longshot Luck
Per the morning line, Pretty Boy Miah, Great White, Talkin, Robusta, Bull by the Horns, Crupper, Corona de Oro, Napoleon Solo are all 15-1 or longer. If any of them wins, it would be among the top 7-10 biggest Preakness shockers ever.
The two 30-1 horses (Crupper, Robusta, Bull by the Horns, Corona de Oro by ML — note the field has multiple at 30-1) would, if winning at those exact odds, slot in around 5th-6th all-time. No Preakness winner since at least 1900 has paid more than $48.80.
The Preakness has never been a longshot's race like the Derby. The biggest winning payout in 150 runnings was Master Derby in 1975 at $48.80 — a number that wouldn't even crack the top 30 in Derby history.
The most recent shock winners: Oxbow (2013, $32.80), Cloud Computing (2017, $28.80), Shackleford (2011, $27.20), and Rombauer (2021, $25.60). The Laurel wrinkle this year: in the six 1 3/16-mile dirt races run at the current Laurel configuration since 2005, no favorite has won and no horse has won from post 1. The highest-priced winner of those was Vance Scholars at 12-1 in the 2022 Bald Eagle Derby.
