Nationals vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 28, 2024

Nationals at Braves

11:20 pm • BSSO

Washington Nationals

38-58

0 - 2

Atlanta Braves

42-53

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			3.25	11-10
J.Irvin			4.41	10-14

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nationals 38-58	+1.5+105	o8.5-101	+207
Braves 42-53	-1.5-125	u8.5-119	-252

Tuesday 11:20 p.m.

May 28, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

M.Fried u5.5 Hits Allowed-125

1.25u

Fried is under this line in 7/10 games. Great history vs this Nats roster (collectively only 13 hits in 80 PA). the Nats overall are under this line in 9/14 vs lefty starters, hitting .223 vs southpaws this season.

M.Fried u5.5 Ks-130

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases-105

0.95u

WSH +205

0.7u

Both buying into Jake Irvin and selling the Braves a bit with no Ronald Acuna Jr. Irvin's new cutter seems to have worked really well for him. Will still need the Nats to score against Max Fried, which could be a chore, but I do think there's good value here.

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Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 5.3 runs per game at home since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB (186 games). The Nationals have allowed 5.0 runs per game on the road since the 2022 season -- third highest in MLB (190 games).

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .428.

Matt Olson has an OPS of .877 since the 2022 season -- 10th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .779 (468 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- sixth Percentile.

62% of Austin Riley fastball strikeouts are elevated this season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 70% of Jake Irvin fastball strikeouts are elevated this season -- seventh highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (107/165) against Max Fried this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 19-30 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 15 of Braves' 46 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	39-56	20-26	19-30	29-45	10-11
Nationals	47-49	19-27	28-22	2-12	45-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	38-51-6	15-28-3	23-23-3	29-41-4	9-10-2
Nationals	50-43-3	24-22	26-21-3	5-9	45-34-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	42-53	24-22	18-31	37-37	5-16
Nationals	38-58	18-28	20-30	4-10	34-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 27th	WSH	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 9	WSH -210
May 26th	@PIT	W 8-1	-1.5 W	O 8	ATL -238
May 25th	@PIT	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	PIT -154
May 24th	@PIT	L 5-11	-1.5 L	O 9	PIT -180
May 23rd	@CHC	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL +101

Chris Sale
SP
Sale is out with ribs
Out
Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Riley
3B
Riley is out with abdomen
Out
Austin Cox
RP
Cox is out with knee
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Josiah Gray
SP
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
CJ Abrams
SS
CJ Abrams has been scratched Sunday.
Out
DJ Herz
SP
Herz is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Irvin, P	90	6	10	0
RJ.Barnes, P	24	1	2	2
RD.Law, P	18	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	2-4	0	0	0
2L.Thomas, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Meneses, 1B	3-3	0	0	0
3E.Rosario, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4N.Senzel, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
5K.Ruiz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Winker, LF	1-2	0	0	0
7I.Vargas, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8R.Adams, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Young, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P		103	8	6	0
RR.Iglesias, P		11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	0-2	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5O.Albies, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
6S.Murphy, C	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Kelenic, LF	0-2	0	0	1
8A.Duvall, RF	1-3	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0