Nationals vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 28, 2024

Nationals at Braves

11:20 pm • BSSO

Washington Nationals

35-49

0 - 2

Atlanta Braves

38-45

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			3.25	11-10
J.Irvin			4.41	10-14

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nationals 35-49	+1.5+105	o8.5-101	+207
Braves 38-45	-1.5-125	u8.5-119	-252

Tuesday 11:20 p.m.

May 28, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

M.Fried u5.5 Hits Allowed-125

1.25u

Fried is under this line in 7/10 games. Great history vs this Nats roster (collectively only 13 hits in 80 PA). the Nats overall are under this line in 9/14 vs lefty starters, hitting .223 vs southpaws this season.

M.Fried u5.5 Ks-130

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases-105

0.95u

WSH +205

0.7u

Both buying into Jake Irvin and selling the Braves a bit with no Ronald Acuna Jr. Irvin's new cutter seems to have worked really well for him. Will still need the Nats to score against Max Fried, which could be a chore, but I do think there's good value here.

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Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 5.3 runs per game at home since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB (186 games). The Nationals have allowed 5.0 runs per game on the road since the 2022 season -- third highest in MLB (190 games).

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .428.

Matt Olson has an OPS of .877 since the 2022 season -- 10th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .779 (468 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- sixth Percentile.

62% of Austin Riley fastball strikeouts are elevated this season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 70% of Jake Irvin fastball strikeouts are elevated this season -- seventh highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (107/165) against Max Fried this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 17-26 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 13 of Braves' 40 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	36-47	19-21	17-26	27-38	9-9
Nationals	43-41	17-23	26-18	2-12	41-29

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	32-46-5	13-24-3	19-22-2	26-36-3	6-10-2
Nationals	40-42-2	18-22	22-20-2	5-9	35-33-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	38-45	23-17	15-28	34-31	4-14
Nationals	35-49	16-24	19-25	4-10	31-39

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 27th	WSH	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 9	WSH -210
May 26th	@PIT	W 8-1	-1.5 W	O 8	ATL -238
May 25th	@PIT	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	PIT -154
May 24th	@PIT	L 5-11	-1.5 L	O 9	PIT -180
May 23rd	@CHC	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL +101

Chris Sale
P
Sale is out with ribs
Out
Joe Jimenez
P
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Cox
P
Cox is out with knee
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
P
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Nacho Alvarez
IF
Alvarez is out with wrist
Out

Keibert Ruiz
C
Ruiz is out with head
Out
Paul DeJong
IF
DeJong is out with nose
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out
DJ Herz
P
Herz is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Irvin, P	90	6	10	0
RJ.Barnes, P	24	1	2	2
RD.Law, P	18	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	2-4	0	0	0
2L.Thomas, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Meneses, 1B	3-3	0	0	0
3E.Rosario, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4N.Senzel, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
5K.Ruiz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Winker, LF	1-2	0	0	0
7I.Vargas, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8R.Adams, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Young, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P		103	8	6	0
RR.Iglesias, P		11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	0-2	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5O.Albies, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
6S.Murphy, C	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Kelenic, LF	0-2	0	0	1
8A.Duvall, RF	1-3	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0