Dodgers vs. Braves NLCS Game 4: Sharp Action, Windy Weather Moving Odds
Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Cody Bellinger
- Sharp action and a PRO System weather match are both pointing toward the under in tonight's Dodgers-Braves game.
- L.A. plated 11 runs in the first inning on Wednesday, a postseason record for a single frame, to inch closer to evening the series. Atlanta now has a 2-1 lead in this best of seven.
- See why and how our systems are triggering matches for Dodgers vs. Braves below.
Dodgers vs. Braves Game 4 Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -228 |
| Braves Odds | +200 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-115/-106) |
| First Pitch | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Check out our new MLB PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
In case you stopped watching after third inning of Game 2, let me inform you: the bats have come alive in the NLCS.
Thirty-three runs have been scored over the past 15 innings in this series, including an 11-run first-inning outburst by the Dodgers Wednesday evening. So how have oddsmakers responded?
Many did so by setting the early over/under line for Game 4 at 9.5 — tying Game 3 for the highest this Postseason. But as you might've noticed, that number — at least at most shops — is no longer available.
Our MLB PRO Report, along with the forecast in Arlington, helps explain why.
Data as of 9 a.m. ET. For immediate access to our MLB PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You'll also get:
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Dodgers vs. Braves PRO Report
Sharps have already made their opinion clear on tonight's line, and the weather forecast has two of our PRO betting systems in agreement.
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Sharp Action
It hasn't necessarily been overwhelming, but the sharp action on tonight's game thus far has come on just one side of this total — which you probably could've already guessed by the line movement, especially considering 73% of the early ticket count has landed on the over.
To confirm that pro activity, a Sports Insights Bet Signal — an indicator of sharp action based on specific instances of market movement — was triggered on the under overnight last night.
Sharp Action edge: Under
PRO Systems
Perhaps a reason that sharps are finding a bit of bonus value on the under tonight? The wind.
While tonight's Globe Life Field roof status is still unknown*, if it does remain open — which it has for all six Postseason games it's hosted thus far — scoring may come at a bit of a premium given the 13 to 15 mph winds blowing straight in from center.
In our database (since 2005), MLB games played in winds of just 5 mph or more from center field have hit the under at a 55.1% rate on a sample of almost 1,800 games, fitting this game into our Wind Blowing In PRO System for the time being.
That's not the only PRO System lighting up with a match for this under, however. Thanks to the over's popularity following 15- and 18-run games, tonight's matchup also fits our Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams system, boasting the same 55.1% win rate on a sample of more than 2,600 games.
*7 p.m. ET update: Per Globe Life Field guest services, the roof will be open tonight.
PRO Systems edge: Under
Check out our new MLB PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
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