
The Pick Don

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The Pick Don
Last 30d: 18-9-0 (+11.14u)
The Pick Don's Picks
Today
BAY +3.5-105
BAY
CIN
1.05u
10/25 8:00 PM
18
6
Pending
HOU -120
SF
HOU
1.8u
10/26 5:00 PM
I don’t care what anyone says, I still believe in this Texans team. Their defense continues to be elite, and it’s only a matter of time before the offense figures it out. While not having Nico Collins won’t help, the 49ers defense is still very banged up. Matter of fact, the entire 49ers roster is banged up. The 49ers will be missing Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Jake Brendel, and Bryce Huff. They could also be without Deommodore Lenoir and Luke Gifford. You can’t possibly get more banged up than this. Almost every one of their stars is out with an injury. I don’t think this will go smoothly against the best defense in football. People ask me why I have the Texans as my 5th best team in the NFL. The reasoning is simple, their defensive unit is elite. Houston’s defense ranks 1st in EPA/play, 1st in total EPA, 1st in EPA/pass, and 2nd in completion percentage allowed. Mac Jones has done well as the backup, but this smells like a disaster day loading for Jones. The Texans will have a game plan to remove Christian McCaffrey from the equation, which leaves the 49ers offense in a tough spot. Houston has the best pass rush grade in the NFL and will pressure Jones all game. I think the Texans defense will single handedly win them this game. All we need from the offense is an average performance. The Texans offense has been awful at protecting C.J. Stroud, but the 49ers defense has been the 3rd worst team in sack rate. They also rank just 17th in EPA/pass and 25th in success rate. I respect Robert Saleh as a defensive coordinator, but he can only do so much with all these injuries piling up. The 49ers current defense grades out as the 25th worst unit in football. It’s now or never for the Texans. I’ll sell high on the 49ers and buy low on a team I have so much belief in.
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| NFL | 62-65-0 | 49% | -10.43u |
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