I know, I know backing a team that has lost 11 straight games isn’t the most sexy play, but I simply have to play this. The Mets are so much better than they’ve been playing, and they’ve simply been super unlucky with a lot of their batted balls. The Mets currently have a .226 team batting average with a .336 slugging percentage. However, they own a much more respectable .247 expected batting average with a .386 expected slugging. While currently being a bottom 10 offense, the advanced metrics paint a much brighter picture for their future. Sure, the vibes in their clubhouse probably aren’t great, but baseball is a sport that only needs one game to get you back in the right direction. The Mets just need to see one go through the hoop, for lack of a better phrase. Today they have about as good of a matchup as they can ask for. They will have Nolan McLean on the bump, who has been fantastic, and their bats will get to face Simeon Woods Richardson, who is simply not very good. McLean continues to impress, sporting a 2.28 ERA with an elite 2.02 xERA and all other estimators under 3. He owns a 104 Stuff+ with a 114 Pitching+ grade and has just a .168 xBA. McLean is a star emerging, and I like his chances against a Twins offense that has played way over their heads to start the season. The Twins were supposed to be one of the worst lineups in the sport this season, so some regression back to the mean is expected. On the other hand, Simeon Woods Richardson is a guy I always look to fade. SWR simply doesn’t have good stuff, and the advanced metrics hate him. He currently has a 6.10 ERA with a 4.68 xERA and 5.60 FIP. His 5.26 SIERA and 5.17 botERA don’t spark any confidence that he’s going to turn it around. SWR also owns just an 87 Stuff+ grade, which is a career low and four points down from last season. His Pitching+ is even worse and is also a career low at 84. SWR currently has the worst breaking ball in the sport and is getting batters to chase just 20.6% of the time, with a brutal 12% strikeout rate. Balls are consistently in play against him and are often hard hit. The Mets lineup is far too good to struggle again today, especially considering their current lineup is hitting .367 off Richardson in 34 plate appearances. The off day yesterday was hopefully a good reset for them. Our model has the Mets winning the first 5 innings set at -313 compared to the current market price of -180, so we see huge value in this price. We will take the F5 spread to avoid heavy juice. Let’s see it, Mets.