FREE POTD. Christopher Sanchez has been elite this season and has proven to be one of the most reliable pitchers over the last few years. He owns a 2.60 ERA with a 3.01 xERA, 2.59 FIP, and 2.83 xFIP. His 114 Stuff+ and 116 Pitching+ grades rank among the best in the league. Sanchez’s changeup is one of the most devastating pitches in baseball, carrying a 17 run value. He’s striking out batters at a 26% clip with a 30.2% whiff rate, while limiting barrels to just 5.4%. His best trait, however, is his elite ground ball ability. Sanchez is inducing grounders on 58.3% of balls in play (96th percentile), making him the best ground ball starter in baseball not named Framber Valdez. At home, he’s been even better with a 2.28 ERA, and he faces a Mets team that ranks just 18th against left handed pitching, hitting .239 with a .389 SLG. While the Mets carry a strong 122 wRC+ at home, that drops to just 105 on the road. Clay Holmes is an interesting case, transitioning from an elite bullpen arm to a starting role. With that has come some natural deterioration of his stuff, as it’s nearly impossible to throw like a closer over five innings. Still, Holmes remains a very talented arm with above average pitch modeling and one of the best fastballs in the game. Like Sanchez, he’s an elite ground ball pitcher, sitting at 55.7%, and he’s also performed better on the road. The Phillies offense is normally strong at home, but this lineup is depleted right now. Both Trea Turner, who has been on fire, and Alec Bohm are sidelined with injuries, leaving the lineup far less intimidating. Yesterday’s 9-3 Phillies win also left both bullpens completely rested. The Mets will have Garrett, Rogers, and Diaz available, while the Phillies counter with Strahm, Kerkering, and Duran. Despite yesterday’s higher scoring game, the pitching should control tonight. Take the under 8 (playable to 7.5).