I’m backing Notre Dame -10.5 here. Going into Provo and laying double digits against an undefeated BYU team is asking a lot, but I think Notre Dame is simply the much better team on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame ranks seventh nationally in offensive EPA per play, second in offensive success rate, and second in points per drive. Defensively, the Irish rank sixth in EPA allowed per play and second in explosive pass rate allowed. This is one of the most complete teams in the country, and I think the gap between these two teams is much larger than their records suggest. BYU deserves respect. This is a good football team, no doubt, but I don’t think they’re anywhere near Notre Dame’s level. The Cougars have benefited from a relatively weak schedule that ranks just 86th nationally, and now they’re facing their toughest test of the season without their best offensive weapon. Star running back LJ Martin remains sidelined with a lower body injury, and I cannot overstate how significant that loss is for this offense. Martin was the engine of BYU’s rushing attack last season, and without him, the Cougars are asking quarterback Bear Bachmeier to carry a much larger workload. Bachmeier rushed for over 100 yards against Iowa State and has been effective on designed runs, but I have a difficult time seeing that success translating against this Notre Dame defense. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash has done an outstanding job with this Irish defense. Notre Dame operates out of an aggressive 3-3-5 scheme, blitzing on roughly 42% of defensive snaps and ranking third nationally in Havoc. What makes this defense so impressive is its ability to create constant disruption without committing penalties. The Irish also have the third lowest penalty rate nationally. I expect this front to give BYU serious problems, especially with the Cougars missing Martin. The biggest concern for BYU is how much of its offense now depends on Bachmeier creating plays with his legs. Notre Dame is one of the best tackling teams in the country, ranking 11th nationally in tackling grade and allowing just six runs of 20 or more yards all season. While Bachmeier has shown the ability to break off explosive runs, Notre Dame has the speed and discipline at the second level to limit those opportunities. I also don’t trust BYU’s receiving corps to consistently win against this secondary. If the Irish can contain Bachmeier on the ground and force him into obvious passing situations, I think this offense is going to have a very difficult time sustaining drives. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame’s offense is starting to hit its stride. BYU ranks 124th nationally in tackling grade and missed 14 tackles against Iowa State. That is a massive red flag against a Notre Dame offense that has become increasingly efficient on the ground. Notre Dame also has a significant advantage at quarterback. CJ Carr has been phenomenal this season, throwing 16 touchdowns to just one interception while recording only four turnover-worthy plays. BYU frequently utilizes Cover 1 and Cover 2 looks, and Carr has been extremely effective against both coverages. He has generated a 56% success rate against Cover 1 and has also shown tremendous efficiency against Cover 2. With how well Carr is playing and Notre Dame’s rushing attack continuing to improve, I think this offense presents far more problems than BYU has faced against its relatively weak schedule. Ultimately, I think this matchup comes down to Notre Dame’s ability to dominate the line of scrimmage, limit Bachmeier’s rushing production, and consistently move the football against a BYU defense that has serious tackling issues. The Cougars have a strong home field advantage, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game stays competitive early. However, I trust Notre Dame’s offense to produce much more consistently over four quarters. BYU is undefeated, but I don’t believe its record accurately reflects the gap between these two teams. I’m laying the 10.5 with Notre Dame.