I’ve had this spot circled since the buzzer sounded the last time these teams met just over two weeks ago. That game ended in a 109-106 double OT thriller with UAB coming out on top. It’s hard to imagine a bigger revenge spot for South Florida after that emotional loss. Despite the result, that game was largely dominated by USF, and blowing it had to sting. They came in as 8.5 point favorites and led by 11 with just five minutes left. USF also out rebounded UAB by 12, but simply couldn’t buy a free throw late despite being a strong free throw shooting team. I love this spot for South Florida and think this game has been circled on their calendar as well. Not only that, this is also a very good matchup for the Bulls. Let’s get into it. UAB simply cannot shoot the basketball. They attempt threes at a bottom five rate nationally and shoot just 29.2% from deep, the 21st worst mark in the country. Because of this inability to shoot, they score almost all of their points near the rim. That plays directly into the strength of the USF defense. The Bulls have struggled defending the three all season (306th), but they are actually 48th in two point percentage allowed. In conference play, that interior defense has tightened up even more, improving by three full percentage points, good for second best in the AAC. USF is allowing just 0.83 points per possession on rim attacks and 0.73 PPP on post ups. This defense is strong in the paint and forces teams into jump shots. Despite giving up 109 points in the first meeting, this is not the schematic matchup UAB wants. On the other end, South Florida’s offense should be able to get whatever it wants, especially in transition. UAB’s defense has been horrific in conference play, ranking 12th in two point percentage allowed and 8th in three point percentage allowed. ShotQuality grades South Florida as the 40th best offense in the country, and they draw an excellent matchup here. UAB is allowing a brutal 1.16 points per possession in transition and has been awful on the glass and in scramble situations. They also struggle badly against attack and kick actions, which is exactly how USF likes to score. USF plays at a hectic pace and doesn’t allow defenses time to get set, which is why they’re so effective in transition. ShotQuality is low on UAB, and so am I. We much prefer the talent on South Florida. The Bulls are not only the more talented team, but also the deeper one. Our model has South Florida winning 84.94-80.15, implying a fair spread of 4.81. While I obviously like USF -2.5, I’m going to stick with the moneyline given how the last game played out. We grabbed a good number at -135 last night, but I’d play this up to -175 if you’d rather avoid the spread. I think South Florida gets their revenge on the road.