Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy Odds
| Tsarukyan Odds | -310 |
| Ruffy Odds | +250 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+154/-200) |
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 331 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 331 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction for UFC 331 on Saturday, September 19, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC 331's co-headliner features potential title eliminator at lightweight. Arman Tsarukyan, who was initially slated for a rematch with Charles Oliveira, will now meet Ruffy on roughly one month's notice.
This would be a more definitive No. 1 contender's fight if the original booking involving the former champ fell through. That said, Ruffy will still have a chance to skip the line should he score an upset with another highlight-reel win.
Here's my Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tsarukyan | Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-3 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:16 | 8:21 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/11/1996 | 6/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.85 | 4.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.80 | 3.83 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.26 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 0% |
| TD Def | 75% | 86% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
From a stylistic perspective, it can be easy to reduce this contest to your classic striker vs. grappler dynamic.
Ruffy, who is undeniably a striking specialist, will be looking to keep this fight on the feet. A Brazilian Conor McGregor clone who fights out of an orthodox stance, Ruffy is an artist who can both capitalize and create openings in the heat of exchanges.
Demonstrating superb proprioception and reaction times, Ruffy will look to draw out his opposition with feints to find the returns he's looking for. From spinning assaults to counter crosses, Ruffy carries weapons that Tsarukyan will absolutely need to respect.
Ruffy has also been making respectable efforts to shore up his grappling game by working with Alexander Volkanovski and company for the better part of a year now. But considering the work Tsarukyan has been doing to add to his already-strong wrestling base, grappling will probably not be Ruffy's first choice in this fight.
A natural athlete who showed an immediate aptitude for fighting, Tsarukyan is a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable transitioning through the phases. However, despite carrying solid dynamism and output on the feet, Tsarukyan clearly does his best work on the floor.
A wrestler who can both create shot opportunities and convert caught kicks into takedowns, Tsarukyan has many routes of grounding his opposition.
Once working from topside, Tsarukyan will typically look to advance by delivering punishing strikes in the form of punches and elbows. Tsarukyan is also making strides in his submission game, something he made a point of proving last time out against Dan Hooker.
Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Armenian fighter, listing Tsarukyan -310 and Ruffy +250 as of this writing.
Even though you can argue that Tsarukyan could be favored a little more widely, I'm not exactly enthused to expose myself to anything north of a 3-1 money line on the favorite.
The path to victory may be a clear one for Tsarukyan, but that doesn't change the fact that Ruffy is a fighter who can quickly end your evening off of a single mistake. But with Ruffy traditionally being a do-or-die fighter who has cleared Unders for most of his career, I'll be targeting the totals market for this fight.
Although I'm a bit more comfortable with the Under 3.5 rounds option (which I still vouch for and will use as parlay fodder), I believe that the Under 2.5 rounds option is more than viable to play straight for anything under -130.
Aside from the aforementioned combustibility of Ruffy, all but one of Tsarukyan's finishes come under the 2.5-round mark. Add in the fact that Tsarukyan will be under undeniable pressure from the promotion to finish given the stakes at hand, and I suspect that the Armenian makes hay with the first positive position he gets.
And if Ruffy can catch Tsarukyan on the way in, then the Under angles should cover 99 percent of the Brazilian's win conditions as well.
Dan's Picks: Under 2.5 Rounds -116 (FanDuel)
