IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Alexandre Pantoja
Check out my UFC 331 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 331 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 331 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 331 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 331 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
The UFC 331 opening bout features 38-year-old Giga Chikadze looking to snap a three-fight losing streak against Brazilian Joanderson Brito. Chikadze briefly looked like a real contender at 145lbs before losing to Calvin Kattar in January of 2022, and has gone 1-3 since.
Chikadze came to MMA relatively late in his career, having primarily kickboxed in his 20s. For most of his UFC run, he beat opponents who tried to strike with him while losing to grapplers. The concerning thing about his current losing streak is that two of his three opponents failed to take him down, and Kevin Vallejos handed him the first knockout loss of his career in his most recent bout. Given his age and "fight mileage", that's a relatively bad sign for his durability, and he also pulled out of a scheduled bout this summer due to an injury.
Joanderson Brito isn't a prospect on the level of Vallejos, but is a solid UFC veteran with a 7-3 promotional record. Primarily a grappler, "Tubarao" has three knockouts and three submissions on his UFC record, though two of those knockouts also came on the ground. He's relatively limited in the striking department, with low output and poor defense, so he will almost certainly be looking to grapple in this matchup.
Chikadze's defensive grappling has improved, though, and he's been submitted just once in his professional career. I think he can do enough to survive against Brito, and possibly find periods of success. For that reason, I'm taking his +3.5 point spread (under alternate point spreads) on DraftKings at +175 odds. He needs to win at least one round on every judge's scorecard while surviving to the bell to cash that bet, but those are fairly good odds for a fighter who has rarely been finished.
We've had a dearth of women's fights in the UFC in general this year, but especially on numbered events, with the lone offering on UFC 331 an early prelim between "King" Casey O'Neil and Eduarda "Ronda" Moura.
My distaste for female fighters using some version of "Ronda" as a nickname aside, O'Neil is a deserved favorite here as the more well-rounded fighter. Moura is a fairly one-dimensional grappler who found her way into combat sports via BJJ as a weight-loss activity in 2018, while O'Neil is the daughter of a professional kickboxer who has been training since her youth.
O'Neil had much of her hype derailed by a pair of knee surgeries that coincided with her only two career losses, both of which came in her first fight following the injury. She's still just 28 and has won two straight since then, a dominant decision and a knockout over Gabriella Fernandes.
O'Neil is by far the better striker, and while Moura might hold a slight edge on the ground, it's tenuous at best. Her takedowns are solid, but she doesn't do much with them, and O'Neil is a fellow BJJ brown belt and more than competent on the ground.
I'd be fine laying the juice on O'Neil, but you can get a better price by pairing her with this fight to extend. Rather than O'Neil by decision (+100), I'm taking an SGP of O'Neil and over 1.5 rounds at -135 on DraftKings, just in case her volume striking leads to a finish in the second half of the fight. Be sure to use the SGP builder on DraftKings rather than the prebuilt parlays, as the latter offers the same bet at -175.
One of the more exciting matchups on the night is the middleweight tilt between Brunno Ferreira and Edmen Shahbazyan. What strikes me most about this matchup is how similar both fighters are: each has an exact 60% win rate in the UFC, with dangerous stoppage ability but questionable defense and chin. I laid out the case for why this fight is essentially a coin flip in our latest UFC betting preview podcast:
You can check out the video linked above for slightly more in-depth thoughts, but this is a fight where I'd be more than happy to bet either man at plus money. That means Ferreira this time, with the +150 at DraftKings being his best odds.
As an additional lean, I believe Shahbazyan winning correlates well with the over (and vice versa), so an SGP of Shahbazyan and over or Ferreira and under would make sense as well.
While the line isn't quite as wide as the heavyweight squash matches later on the card, the bout between Ryan Gandra and Ozzy Diaz is basically a showcase fight for Gandra, who is 3-0 between the UFC and Contender Series with three quick knockout victories. Ozzy Diaz is 1-3, including his DWCS loss, with all of the defeats coming via knockout.
With that said, I don't quite believe in Gandra as an elite prospect. I can't quite put my finger on why, perhaps because he overextends himself on strikes and is begging to be countered, or maybe because his finish over Zach Reese was arguably an early stoppage. Either way, I don't view him the same way as I do fighters like Ateba Gautier or Yousri Belgaroui, despite similar UFC results to this point.
Of course, that doesn't mean I'm picking Diaz. The 35-year-old exists on the roster to make fighters like Gandra (and the aforementioned Gautier) look good. While he's a technically sound fighter (his 61% significant strike defense stands out given his competition) he lacks the physical tools of a true UFC contender, which isn't something he can really fix in the latter stages of his career.
I've got more than enough action on this card that I'm not worried about betting this one, but my lean is the fight to start Round 2 at +120 on DraftKings. I'm officially passing, but I could see Diaz's length and defense holding up long enough to extend this fight.
Michael Aswell might be the best 1-3 UFC fighter on the roster — which isn't exactly saying much, but still counts for something. "The Texas Kid" is a high-output, all-action fighter who has mostly been unable to put in complete performances while flashing plenty of upside in all three of his close decision losses.
That upside was on full display in a job-saving knockout win over Lucas Almeida before he was fed to top prospect Luke Riley. Now he gets another (former) top prospect in Joo Sang Yoo, who came into the UFC undefeated. Yoo knocked out Jeka Saragih in under 30 seconds in his debut, then got knocked out by Daniel Santos himself last fall.
Both men are mainly strikers who are willing to take a shot to give one. They both also put up a ton of volume, which makes this a fairly high-volatility fight. While Yoo has the cleaner striking, Aswell has a bit more grappling upside and, at 25, is more likely to have made significant improvements since his last fight than his 32-year-old Korean opponent.
However, the biggest reason I'm picking Aswell is because of his superior chin. This fight could quickly turn into a game of Rock 'Em Sock 'Em robots, and Aswell has never been knocked down or finished. We just saw Yoo suffer a bad knockout loss in his last fight, and Aswell brings enough power to replicate that outcome.
He's also seen the line move significantly in his direction despite most public picks being on Yoo, which is a sign that sharp money is on my side of this read. Caesars still has +200, but I'd bet him down to +165.
Tai Tuivasa has the chance to join a special club on Saturday, though he'll be hoping to avoid it. His current seven-fight losing streak is one shy of the longest in UFC history, a dishonor shared by Tony Ferguson and Sam Alvey. He's heavily favored to do so, going off as more than a four-to-one underdog against the resigned Robelis Despaigne.
The streak began with a surprisingly close loss to Ciryl Gane but has progressed to outright embarrassing performances, with Tuivasa generally showing up out of shape and hoping to land an early bomb, before quickly gassing out when that plan doesn't come to fruition. He remains on the roster due to his well-deserved popularity, but this is likely his last shot to get back in the win column.
To his credit, he's moved camps to American Top Team for this fight, which is not only one of the sport's best gyms but also has a wrestling-heavy style that could pay dividends for Tuivasa in this matchup.
His opponent, Robelis Despaigne, was initially cut from the UFC after going 1-2 in 2024. The former Olympic Taekwondo medalist is one of the scariest strikers we've seen at heavyweight in a long time, but is also an extremely limited MMA fighter. He looked hopeless on the ground in losses to Waldo Cortes Acosta and Austen Lane, two fighters who have landed more takedowns on Despaigne than the rest of their UFC careers combined. Of course, Tuivasa has never landed a takedown in the UFC.
Despaigne went to Karate Combat following his UFC run and excelled in the striking-only sport, winning their heavyweight title against the aforementioned Sam Alvey. Then, he defeated 42-year-old Junior Dos Santos on the MVP on Netflix card, and was positioned well to face Francis Ngannou in the new promotion's follow-up effort. The UFC resigned him more to keep him away from Jake Paul and company than because they want to promote the 38-year-old, but are at least giving him a very friendly opening matchup.
The potential to grapple might be the only saving grace for "Bam Bam" in this matchup, and it's a pretty thin bet. Still, the move to ATT should help him in that regard. I have my concerns about Tuivasa pulling off multiple rounds of wrestling, though, so I'd rather take a flier on him to land a single takedown at +500 odds. His chances of winning a fight without a takedown are much lower than his chances of getting a takedown and losing, so it's notable that we're getting a better price on the takedown prop.
For a closer look at the featured prelim bout between Marlon Vera and Charles Jourdain, check out the full breakdown from John Lanfranca.
Starting with his failed title challenge against Sean O'Malley, "Chito" Vera has dropped four straight fights, though one of them was an arguable split decision against Aiemann Zahabi. Vera's notoriously slow starts and limited output have seemingly caught up with him, as he's no longer producing the big moments that swung rounds and finished fights in his younger days, and this could be the last time we see him in the UFC. He's still just 33 years old, but this will be his 37th professional fight and 27th in the UFC.
Jourdain is only three years younger, but with ten fewer pro and UFC fights than Vera. He's also trending in the right direction, picking up three straight wins, all of which came with a performance bonus. He's a less skilled overall striker than Vera but puts in more activity and has four UFC submission wins, all via guillotine.
I have my issues with guillotines as takedown defense, and that shows in Jourdain's stats (46% TD defense rate in the UFC), but it is unlikely to be an issue against Vera. Chito hasn't landed a takedown in any of his last nine fights, though he was a somewhat more active grappler early in his career. Jourdain doesn't proactively grapple much either, so this is likely to be a kickboxing match with small gloves.
Such a matchup likely goes long, as evidenced by Jourdain's superior volume, which wins him rounds. Rather than lay the juice on the over or fight goes to a decision, I like Jourdain to go over his significant strikes prop of 67.5 at DraftKings.
Bets
Charles Jourdain over 67.5 significant strikes -115
While Gable Steveson (see below) is the more hyped undefeated prospect at UFC 331, he's not the only one. Poland's Iwo Baraniewski has been extremely impressive to start his UFC career, with four straight first-round knockouts (including on the Contender Series) in less than four minutes of combined cage time.
The most impressive thing about Baraniewski is that his background is actually in Judo, but he hasn't needed to use his grappling at all. Even in a memorable back-and-forth brawl with Ibo Aslan, he was happy to exchange blows even after getting dropped, and eventually emerged victorious. I was worried about him from a defensive standpoint after that fight, but he hasn't absorbed a single significant strike since.
He's getting a big step up in Alonzo Menifield, an 18-fight UFC veteran who has never been a top contender, but has settled in as a fairly effective gatekeeper at light heavyweight. Menifield is coming off a win over another much hyped prospect, Zhang Mingyang, whom he knocked out as a similarly-sized underdog as he is this weekend.
The former CFL and Arena Football League linebacker is a plus athlete and has developed a well-rounded mixed martial arts skill set, but is closing in on the twilight of his career at 38 years old. He's 3-3 over his last six, with all three losses coming via knockout, and doesn't have a true edge over Baraniewski in this matchup. Menifield has the size and power to be dangerous in any fight, but it's hard to envision him winning outside of a somewhat fluky knockout.
I've been betting on Baraniewski to show off his grappling in most of his UFC fights to date, so for the sake of the bit I'll have a small sprinkle on his over 0.5 takedown prop at +350 on DraftKings. However, my main position is Baraniewski to win in Rounds 1 or 2 at -175 via FanDuel. I'm happy to pay the extra juice relative to his -115 Round 1 prop in case Menifield extends this fight via some wall and stall.
The UFC is clearly uninterested in pushing the 4-0 Gable Steveson too hard, though, to be fair to this matchup, Sean Sharaf, at 4-2, has a similar level of professional MMA experience. What he doesn't have is multiple NCAA D1 championships and an Olympic gold medal to his name, which is a fairly stark difference between himself and Steveson.
Wrestling was clearly never an optional activity for Gable Dan Steveson, but he's excelled at it every step of the way, and after flirting with the NFL and WWE, he's now set his sights on MMA greatness. To his credit, Steveson has worked to round out his game, competing in Mike Perry's "Dirty Boxing" promotion and willingly exchanging on the feet with fighters he could clearly take down. This is a very similar matchup to the one he was given in his UFC debut against Elisha "Snack Panther" Ellison, a fight Steveson won in about half a round without a single takedown.
At a certain point, Steveson will need to utilize his world-class wrestling in the Octagon, but probably not against Sharaf, who is 0-2 in the UFC with a pair of knockout losses. The 33-year-old Sharaf might be the more technically proficient striker of the pair, but the athletic gulf is massive. Plus, if things get hairy on the feet for Steveson, the takedowns will always be there.
Steveson is -330 to pick up a first-round win, -550 to win by knockout, and parlaying those things together still only gets you to -205. I'll have plenty of exposure to Steveson in DFS, but I'm passing on this one from a betting standpoint.
The featured fight at UFC 331 features a pair of veteran featherweights in Patricio "Pitbull" Freire and Dooho Choi. Pitbull signed with the UFC in 2025 after a 30-fight Bellator run that included multiple title runs and tournament championships, but was clearly past his prime by the time he arrived in the Octagon. He's gone 1-2 with the promotion, all via decision, most recently losing to fellow Bellator transplant Aaron Pico in April.
At this point in his career, the Brazilian still has his vaunted grappling ability, but not much else. His UFC win over Dan Ige came on the back of five takedowns, and he mounted little resistance striking or grappling against elite wrestler Aaron Pico. His success this weekend almost certainly hinges on his ability to pick up takedowns on "The Korean Superboy" Dooho Choi.
Choi is hard to get a read on due to multiple extended absences from the cage. He fought just once between January of 2018 and February of 2023, when he returned to competition with a majority draw against Kyle Nelson. Since then, he's picked up three straight knockout victories over Bill Algeo, Nate Landwehr, and Daniel Santos. That isn't the toughest competition, but it's also a group that was unlikely to test his grappling defense.
I'm not sure it's enough to get him a win — or even see him through to the final bell — but I expect the underdog to land some takedowns in this matchup. I'm betting on Pitbull to land a single takedown on FanDuel at -145, and would consider laddering that up to 3+ takedowns if you want some juicier action.
We have a rare non-title five-round co-main event at UFC 331, as a pair of top-ten lightweights jockey for potential title consideration.
Arman Tsarukyan hasn't competed in MMA since November of last year, but he hasn't been resting on his laurels. The #2 ranked lightweight contender has been busy on a series of side quests, competing eight times in freestyle wrestling under the RAF banner, and four times in other grappling matches.
He's looked great, with just one loss in that span despite competing outside of his normal sport, and looks to carry that momentum into a fight with former Fighting Nerds member Mauricio Ruffy, who moved his camp for this fight to Australia, where he trained with (among others) Israel Adesanya and Brad Riddell.
These are two of the most physically gifted lightweights on the planet, with Tsarukyan expressing that through his high-volume grappling and wrestling — though his power is underrated — and Ruffy via brutal striking. This is a pretty clear striker-vs-grappler matchup, but I trust the striking of Tsarukyan far more than the grappling of Ruffy.
Ruffy was taken down three times and finished inside of two rounds by Benoit Saint Denis, and has otherwise been matched up with strikers outside of the fight against a washed Michal Chandler at the white house. Tsarukyan has held his own on the feet against opponents like Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker, outlanding both of them even when removing ground strikes from the equation.
Still, given the binary nature of this fight, I'd much rather take unders than a straight bet on Tsarukyan. "Fight to start Round 4: No" is -158 at FanDuel and should cover most of our bases here, but Arman in any of the first three rounds at +115 is a solid option as well.
For my extended thoughts on the UFC 331 main event, check out my full breakdown.
The Cliff Notes version is that I expect Pantoja to have some early success via takedowns, but not enough to separate from Van, whose getup game is based on butterfly hooks, deep half-guard sweeps/escapes, and Octopus guard, which limits opportunities for back takes.
On the feet, Van is a step quicker than any version of Pantoja, with that being amplified by the 36-year-old Brazilian coming off a nine-month layoff following the arm injury he suffered in the first fight between the two. Pantoja is durable, but Van's superior speed and pace will allow him to pull away if and when Pantoja's takedowns slow down.
I'm fine laying the slight juice on Van, but will also be looking to double down on him live after the first round. Van is a somewhat slow starter, and Pantoja typically does his best grappling work early, so we could get plus-money on the current champion depending on how the first round goes.
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Moneyline Bets
Van -130
Aswell +200
Ferreira +150
Prop Bets, Totals
Tsarukyan-Ruffy Doesn't start Round 4 -158
Pitbull 1+ takedowns -145
Baraniewski in Rounds 1 or 2 -175 | Baraniewski Over 0.5 takedowns +350
Jourdain over 67.5 Significant strikes -115
Tuivasa Over 0.5 Takedowns +800
Chikadze +3.5 +175
Parlays
SGP: O'Neil and Over 1.5 Rounds -135
Live Bets
Van after Round 1
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About the Author
Billy Ward has been passionate about fantasy sports since the 1990s and pursued a career as an MMA fighter, turning pro at 21 before returning to college to finish his degree. He has notable achievements in fantasy sports and DFS, including qualifying for the DraftKings UFC DFS world championship and five-figure wins in NFL DFS and best ball. Now a member of the Action Network’s predictive analytics team, Billy specializes in NFL, MLB, and combat sports, managing DFS player projection models and contributing to podcasts and live betting shows.
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