Super Bowl 60 is over, which means all eyes turn to NASCAR and its "Super Bowl" — the Daytona 500 (Sun. Feb 15, 2:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
Those familiar with betting on NASCAR can skip this section, but if you're new to it, I'm going to briefly touch on how to bet the Daytona 500.
Daytona is one of three "pack racing" tracks where NASCAR has implemented engine and aerodynamics packages on the cars to limit their top speed while creating a big wake, known as the draft.
That draft lets the trailing car "suck up" to the car in front of it, meaning it's actually faster to be behind another car, or multiple cars, and it makes it impossible to separate from the other cars.
This effect, combined with the prestige of winning the sport's biggest race, means that at any moment, a huge wreck, called "the Big One," can occur and wipe out several cars.
Also, because of the draft effect, nearly anyone can slingshot past the car in front of them and put themselves in position to win, creating an opportunity for longshot winners.
Three years in a row, from 2021 to 2023, the winner was 40-1 odds or longer, and each of the past two years, the race has been won by William Byron, who was 20-1 or longer at various points in the week leading up to the race.
That said, we still want strong superspeedway racers because they are more likely to put themselves in the position to win or, in the case of my best bet, finish near the front.
Dr. Nick's First Daytona 500 Bet
Before we dive into my best bet, make sure to sign up for Action PRO, as I'll be putting my proprietary FLAGS metric for both race speed and practice speeds in PRO articles this year.
In the middle of the week after a race, I'll drop the previous race's FLAGS, so you can use that for analysis in upcoming races. And on the weekend after practice sessions, I'll put that session's practice FLAGS up as well.
This is extremely important for betting, as compiling practice speeds, where cars were already on track that weekend, is of utmost importance in analyzing a race.
On to the bet.
My favorite early bet for the Daytona 500 is the same one I gave in my Super Bowl LX cross-sport parlay, which, at 33-1, is still alive! That's Todd Gilliland at 9-1 for a Top-5 finish.
As I write this, the best odds are at FanDuel at 9-1, but I've seen some 8-1s floating around, and I'm totally fine betting those if that's all you have access to.
Gilliland is a second-generation driver who drives the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford. He only has two top-five finishes in his career, but one of them came at the most recent drafting track race — at Talladega in the playoffs last year.
Gilliland has had pretty bad luck in the drafting races, racking up just two top-10 finishes, so it might sound crazy that I like him at 9-1 for a Top-5 finish, but he's actually run really well throughout his whole career at drafting races.
In his very first Daytona 500 start in 2022, Gilliland was running near the front when he was taken out by a late-race Big One with 10 laps left that occurred right in front of him, leaving him nowhere to go.
He had the 12th-best average running position in that race, right up there with big names like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott. Since then, he's produced six superspeedway races with even better average running positions than that.
His best of all was the 2024 first race at EchoPark Speedway, then called Atlanta Motor Speedway, where he led 58 laps. That was the most laps led in that race, and his average running position was inside the top five of all drivers.
Gilliland has led multiple laps in exactly 50% of the past 12 drafting races, showing he can get to the front.
He just needs to avoid the Big One, and he'll be in a great position to not only score a top five, but maybe even win!
My model actually gives him closer to 6-1 odds as fair value, and while that might be a touch aggressive, I'm fine betting this down to 7-1 to leave some wiggle room for model error.
The Bet: Todd Gilliland Top 5 Finish (+900 at FanDuel) | Bet To: +700
