NASCAR Odds for Pocono: Best Bet Pick for Saturday’s XFINITY Series Race
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images/ Pictured: NASCAR XFINITY Series driver Austin Hill holds his son
It's been one helluva week.
While on a family road trip through the Northeast, we stopped in Atlantic City for a few days where both of our kids spiked fevers and started complaining about sore throats.
After my wife found an urgent care in Atlantic City on Sunday morning to get strep tests (which were positive) and antibiotics, we returned home only to find out that the strep was now accompanied by a nasty virus that would require time to work its way through.
Fast forward to Saturday and we're still in "it." And you fellow parents know what I mean when I say, "it."
Now, I'm not telling you all of this for sympathetic reasons, but because this weekend will continue to include significant quarantining.
Thankfully, this is a very solid sports weekend for passing the time, including the Open Championship, a Truck Series and XFINITY Series doubleheader on Saturday, a Saturday/Sunday IndyCar doubleheader at Iowa and the Cup Series race on Sunday.
While I'm certainly one that enjoys a gamble on racecars anyway, a clear calendar on Saturday means more time to dig into the data and find value.
At this point, I haven't found anything exciting regarding NASCAR odds for the Truck Series race, though one NASCAR pick for this afternoon's Explore the Pocono Mountains 225 (5:30 p.m. ET, USA) is good enough to warrant a wager.
NASCAR Pick for Pocono
*NASCAR odds as of Saturday morning
Austin Hill was blazing fast yesterday at Pocono.
Hill posted the third-fastest single lap, with the fastest five-lap average and second-best 10-lap average Friday in practice.
To be fair, just eight drivers made 10-lap runs in practice, but Hill was faster than some of the best cars in the field, including Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer, so it's not like he beat up on a gaggle of backmarkers.
Hill's one hiccup came in qualifying, where he was more than a half-second slower than polesitter Josh Berry. But that gap was mostly due to driver error as opposed to speed in the racecar.
The driver of the No. 21 Chevrolet missed turn one on his qualifying lap, putting him significantly behind Berry.
However, the rest of Hill's lap was right on Berry's.
If given another opportunity, I'm quite confident that the gap between the two would be much tighter.
Still, Hill will start 11th, which isn't terrible, but still far enough back to provide NASCAR odds value.
With this in mind, I'm taking a crack at Hill +250 (bet365) for a top-five finish in today's XFINITY Series race.
NASCAR odds of +250 convert to an implied probability of 28.57%, which is a low enough break-even point for me to back one of the fastest cars in practice on Friday.