76ers vs. Heat Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Game 5 Favorite (Tuesday, May 10)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat.
- The Philadelphia 76ers head back to South Beach to face the Miami Heat in a pivotal Game 5.
- So far, the home team has won every game in this series and the Heat are 3.5-point favorites entering tonight's game. Will that trend hold up?
- Matt Moore breaks down how to bet the matchup.
76ers vs. Heat Odds
|Over/Under||209.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
With Joel Embiid back in the lineup, the Philadelphia 76ers have stormed back into their series with the Miami Heat.
Is the MVP Finalist enough to get Philly one on the road to take firm control of the series? Or will the Heat actually be able to put the ball into the round thing with the net this time?
Let’s bet Sixers-Heat Game 5.
Will the 76ers Get the Same Version on James Harden?
Embiid is day-to-day with his facial fracture, but he is expected to play. If you’re looking to bet the Sixers, the argument is that James Harden finally looked like himself in Game 4.
He had real burst to his step, put up 31-7-9 on 18 shots, and looked like the superstar they expected to get when they pulled of the trade. The return of Embiid has settled down the defense and reduced the number of Deandre Jordan minutes (zero minutes in Game 4).
Tyrese Maxey was uncomfortable in the beginning of this series, but has played like a star again in the last few games. The momentum is with the Sixers and the Heat may not have the offensive weapons to keep pace.
The Sixers have also figured out the switch against the Heat. They’re shooting 63% in pick-and-roll possessions where Miami switches, which is the majority of the time. Harden, in particular, has scored 43 points on 37 direct switches. He has torched the Heat, which has kept Duncan Robinson on the bench and limited their offense.
Maybe the tide has simply turned against Miami, or (hear me out) the Heat just missed a lot of good shots.
Will the Heat Hit Their Open Shots?
Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable as his hamstring continues to give him issues and his status is unclear. Tyler Herro, PJ Tucker, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Dewayne Dedmon are all questionable, but expected to play.
Miami shot 7-of-35 from 3-point range in Game 4, including 5-of-24 when either uncontested or lightly contested via Second Spectrum data. They generated a higher expected effective field goal percentage than the Sixers by three percentage points yet shot 25 percentage points worse than expected.
Did Embiid dramatically shift the game for the Heat? Not quite. Miami shot 24-of-31 (77.4%) in the paint in Game 4. They had eight more points in the paint than the Sixers.
In the past two games, the Sixers have been excellent defensively with Embiid on the floor, allowing just 102.4 points per 100 possessions. But when he’s been off the floor, the Sixers have given up just 84 points per 100 possessions.
Does that make sense? Does that track? Of course not. Which is why we return to the shooting variance.
For the Sixers, Danny Green shot 10-of-13 (76.9%!!) from behind the arc in the two games in Philly. If you expect Green to continue to shoot like that, by all means, fire away.
But when I watched the game over, I didn’t see a dominating Sixers defense. The Heat played a little badly, but shot much worse than that; they should stabilize at home.
I bet Heat in Game 3. I lost. I bet Heat in Game 4. I lost.
I will bet them in Game 5. I cannot reach another conclusion given the context of how this series has gone, the factors at play and how much better Miami in particular has been at home vs. on the road, and the same for the Sixers.
I don’t want to mess with the total because there’s a chance the Sixers stay hot but Miami gets its shots to fall. There’s also a chance this is another ugly, switch-heavy rock fight.
I will say if you like the over, you should bet the Sixers, and if you like the under, you should bet the Heat.
Pick: Heat -3.5
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