Five NBA Prop Bets for Friday Night: Thompson Over/Under 22 Points?

Five NBA Prop Bets for Friday Night: Thompson Over/Under 22 Points? article feature image
Credit:

Cary Edmunson- USA Today Sports

Tonight’s NBA slate features 10 games, which gives us plenty of opportunities to get some action down. As usual, the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets. There are currently seven props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, and an additional 21 props with a Bet Quality of nine.

 

Here are five prop bets I’m eyeing for games starting at 7:00 and 10:00 p.m. ET.


Kent Bazemore under 13 points (-135)

7:00 p.m. ET

Bazemore has been over 13 points in each of his past two games, but that belies the fact that his role with the Hawks is decreasing. He’s posted a usage rate of no more than 18.5 percent in three of four games in addition to playing no more than 28 minutes. The Hawks’ matchup with the Pacers is also a poor one, and their implied team total of 101 points is the second-lowest mark on the slate.

Klay Thompson under 22.5 points (-143)

10:00 p.m. ET

Thompson will likely see a larger role today with Steph Curry out of the lineup, but don’t expect the Warriors to score nearly as many points as usual. They’ve played at a snail-like pace with Curry off the floor this season, averaging just 95.1 possessions per 48 minutes. Their efficiency has also decreased, as they’ve scored nearly eight points fewer per 100 possessions. Thompson has averaged 20 points per game in 14 games without Curry this season, and the Portland Trail Blazers rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.

 

Myles Turner over seven rebounds (-125)

7:00 p.m. ET

Turner is starting to see more playing time for the Pacers, hitting the 30-minute mark in five of his past six games. He has a good matchup today for rebounding purposes against the Atlanta Hawks, who have the fifth-worst team rebound rate this season. Turner pulled down just five boards against them in their previous contest last week, but he saw just 15.5 minutes in that game. That kind of pace would put him well over seven boards if he sees his normal workload today.

Kris Dunn under six assists (+110)

7:00 p.m. ET

Dunn has seen his playmaking responsibilities reduced since returning from injury, posting six assists or fewer in six of his past eight games. He has exceeded that mark in two of his past three games, but I’ll take my chances with the more long-term numbers at better than even money. The Pistons are playing at the 10th-slowest pace this season, so this game could be slower than usual as well.

Buddy Hield over 14 points (-114)

10:00 p.m. ET

Hield has been an excellent scorer this season but has been somewhat limited in terms of his minutes. Last game, however, he saw 31 minutes, and he has averaged 18.8 points per 36 minutes. He has a wonderful matchup today with the Orlando Magic, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency, and Hield could see a few additional minutes with De’Aaron Fox ruled out with an injury.

Top photo: Klay Thompson; credit: Cary Edmunson-USA TODAY Sports