3 NBA Prop Bets for Monday: Scary Terry Over/Under 16 Points?

3 NBA Prop Bets for Monday: Scary Terry Over/Under 16 Points? article feature image

Tonight’s NBA slate only features five games, but that’s never going to stop us from looking for ways to turn a profit. Some of the most exploitable bets on any given night can be prop bets, especially with the help of the FantasyLabs Player Props tool. There are currently five props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, while an additional 16 props have a Bet Quality of at least eight out of 10.

 

Here are three bets I’m eyeing for games starting at 7 p.m. ET and 10 p.m. ET:

Celtics PG Terry Rozier Over 16 Points (-160 at Sportsbook.com)

10 p.m. ET | NBATV

The Celtics are still without both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, which means that Terry Rozier should command the majority of their PG minutes on tonight’s slate. Rozier has dominated in nine games without Irving and Smart this season, seeing a usage bump of +4.1% while averaging 19.2 points per game. He has one of the best matchups of the night against the Phoenix Suns, who currently rank second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Celtics’ implied team total of 108.5 points represents an increase of more than four points when compared to their season average (104.3).

Lakers SF/PF Kyle Kuzma Over 7 Rebounds (-125 at Bovada)

7 p.m. ET

The Lakers are extremely shorthanded at the moment. They played just eight guys in their most recent contest and three of those players saw less than 20 minutes. Their starters all carry huge projected workloads, including 40.8 minutes for Kuzma. He’s averaged 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes this season and will likely play closer to 40 minutes again on today’s slate. This line is low given his sheer volume of playing time — he’s been over the seven-rebound mark in five of his past six games.

 

76ers C Joel Embiid Under 11.5 Rebounds (-165 at Sportsbook.com)

7 p.m. ET | NBATV

Embiid is obviously one of the most dominant centers in the league, but he isn’t exactly a rebound monster like DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond. Embiid averages 11 rebounds per game on the season, and his current matchup with the Nuggets should be difficult from a rebounding perspective. Denver currently ranks third in the league in team rebound rate, and according to Rotowire, centers average just 8.7 rebounds per game against them this season.

Top Photo:  Terry Rozier, Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports