Three NBA Props for Tuesday: Smith Jr. Over/Under 5.5 Assists?
Jerome Miron- USA Today Sports
The NCAA officially takes center stage starting on Thursday, but the NBA will have our full attention tonight. There are 11 games on tap starting at 7:00 p.m. ET, and as usual the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets. Six props currently have a perfect Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, while an additional 29 props have a Bet Quality of at least eight.
Here are three props that stand out to me for games starting at 7:30, 9:00, and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Lakers PF Kyle Kuzma over 6.5 rebounds (-130 at 5Dimes)
10:30 p.m. ET | NBATV
Kuzma has seen a major spike in playing time recently thanks to the injury to Brandon Ingram. He’s played at least 37.5 minutes in four straight games. He’s pulled down at least eight rebounds in three of those contests, and he barely missed the cut in the fourth game with six. The Nuggets are one of the best rebounding teams in the league — they currently rank third in the league in team rebound rate — but the Lakers should still get plenty of rebound opportunities thanks to playing at the league’s fastest pace.
Mavs PG Dennis Smith Jr. over 5.5 assists (-114 at BetOnline)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Mavericks have one of the top matchups of the day against the New York Knicks, who have been an absolute disaster defensively since losing Kristaps Porzingis to an injury. They’ve allowed 120.4 points per 100 possessions over their last 11 games, which is almost 10 points worse than the Suns’ league-worst full season mark of 110.7. Smith Jr. has been playing more minutes recently, seeing at least 34 in three of his past five games, so he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up assists tonight.
Pistons PG Ish Smith under 11 points (-115 at Bovada)
9:00 p.m. ET
Smith has eclipsed 11 points in each of the past two games, but he failed to crack even six points in any of the four games prior. He has a brutal matchup tonight with the Utah Jazz, who rank second in the league in defensive efficiency and play at the fourth-slowest pace. The Pistons’ implied team total of 93.5 points is by far the lowest mark on the slate and has already decreased by two points since opening.
Top photo: Dennis Smith Jr.; credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports