Pictured: Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
- The Cleveland Cavaliers opened -7 for tonight’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 against the Boston Celtics
- The home team is 5-0 ATS so far this series, and 59% of tickets are laying the points with Cleveland
- Fifty-five percent of dollars wagered are taking the underdog Celtics, inspiring many sportsbooks to move the line to Boston +6.5
Home is where the heart is. Apparently, it’s also where the value is. The home team has covered each game of the Eastern Conference Finals, with Boston a sporty 10-0 against the spread (ATS) at the friendly confines of the TD Garden this postseason.
With the Celtics holding a 3-2 series lead, Game 6 shifts back to Cleveland, and bettors are banking on the home cooking to continue. The Cavaliers opened -7 across the market, and 59% of tickets are laying the points.
However, only 45% of actual dollars wagered are backing Cleveland, creating a 15% bets vs. dollars discrepancy according to The Action Network’s NBA betting trends.
While 55% of dollars doesn’t seem overwhelming, and in a vacuum it’s not, line movement is the be-all and end-all.
A large number of sportsbooks, respect what’s coming in on Boston and have moved their numbers down to +6.5. Pinnacle is holding strong at Cavs -7, but has adjusted the vig to -100, meaning its next move is likely to 6.5 as well.
Having access to live betting data is crucial to diagnosing how individual games are being bet across the market. But it’s also extremely important to correlate betting trends with actual line movement, especially in something as efficient as the NBA betting market.