The Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks will face off in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites over the Cavs on the spread (Knicks -7.5), with the over/under set at 217.5 total points. New York is a -265 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cleveland is priced at +215 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Game 1 of their playoff series on Tuesday, May 19.
Cavaliers vs Knicks Prediction
- Cavaliers vs Knicks pick: Over 217.5 (-110)
My Knicks vs. Cavaliers Game 1 best bet is on the total to go over 217.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Cavaliers vs Knicks Odds for Game 1
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 217.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 217.5 -110o / -110u | -265 |
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Cavaliers vs Knicks NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview, Analysis
The Cavaliers are up against a brutal historical script here coming off a Game 7.
Only two teams in modern history have ever handled back-to-back seven-game series—the 2024 Pacers and the 2006 Suns—and that mileage is real. Road underdogs in Game 1 after a Game 7 are a miserable 13-30 straight up and 20-23 (47%) ATS full game.
I heavily considered a first-quarter bet because road teams in this spot are historically 11-9-2 ATS (55%), meaning Cleveland could start hot before running out of gas. However, the Cavs have been terrible on the road and in first quarters all postseason.
I'm staying away from the side entirely.
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
The Knicks hold a massive nine-day rest advantage, and they have established the highest offensive floor of any team in these playoffs.
I got a little worried when New York was tied 2-2 in its series against the Hawks, but the numbers showed their struggles could be mainly chalked up to idiotic breakdowns in transition, and the Knicks aren't playing like idiots anymore.
Schematically, the Cavs are going to throw at-level coverage at Jalen Brunson to force the ball out of his hands. Cleveland will point to the regular-season tracker where Dean Wade held Brunson to 1-of-15 shooting to justify this, but if Jalen trusts the pass instead of over-dribbling into isolation, New York's offense will pick them apart.
Cavaliers vs Knicks Picks, Betting Analysis
Over 217.5 (-110)
The total opened at 216.5 and has ticked up since then, but I’m still comfortable playing the Over.
Historically, teams coming off a Game 7 are 23-18-2 (56%) to the Over, while the opponent team total goes over at a 25-18 clip because tired teams simply struggle to get defensive stops.
If the Cavs hang around, it’s because they’re cooking offensively; if they crash, a rested Knicks team will put up a massive number on a gassed defense.
Even after applying a strict nine-point playoff deflation adjustment, my model still projects this total at 230. These two teams are simply too good offensively for a number this low.
Josh Hart Over 16.5 Points & Assists (-120)
The Cavs love to switch everything one through four, and the most effective way to counter a switch is by slipping whoever the screener is.
Cleveland will likely try to hide Donovan Mitchell on Josh Hart, but if they show a secondary defender high on Brunson to prevent Jalen from hunting that switch, Hart is going to slip right down the middle of the lane. From there, he can drive for easy layups or kick out to open shooters.
I hate his rebounds line here because Cleveland’s frontcourt has real size, but Hart averaged 19 points and 9.9 three-point attempts per 40 minutes against the Cavs this season.
With OG Anunoby back in the lineup to handle the primary wing duties, Hart slides into a premium distribution role for the Knicks.
Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points (-114)
Because the Cavs play two at the ball against Brunson, they're going to try to hide Harden or Mitchell on Mikal Bridges and help off him. Those guys consistently fall asleep on the weak-side, oftentimes leaving Bridges wide open for corner threes.
When Cleveland hedges high to wall off Jalen, Bridges will be the primary recipient of those cross-court passes where he can either shoot or attack downhill.
In the regular season against Cleveland, Bridges averaged 18 points per 48 minutes while shooting 45% from the field and 40% from deep. This is a great spot for him.
Matt Moore's Cavaliers vs Knicks Best Bets
- Over 217.5 (-110)
- Josh Hart Over 16.5 Points & Assists (-120)
- Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points (-114)
