The Cleveland Cavaliers (36-21) and Oklahoma City Thunder (43-14) will face off in the NBA this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder on the spread (Cavaliers -3.5), with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. Cleveland is a -160 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Oklahoma City is +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, February 22.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Prediction
- Cavaliers vs Thunder picks: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110), Over 226.5 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Cavaliers best bets are on Cleveland to cover the spread and the Over at 226.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Cavaliers vs Thunder NBA Preview
It is not hyperbole to suggest that at this current time, this may be a potential NBA Finals preview.
The Cavaliers had already turned a corner before trading for James Harden; they haven’t lost since, having now won 12 of their last 13 games.
The Thunder continue to chug along without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They are now 5-3 without him, and 1-3 without SGA and Jalen Williams (Ajay Mitchell has also missed this entire stretch, which is actually a huge deal; he’s their third-best on-ball creator at they very least).
Here’s how they match up and how I’m betting it.
The Thunder offense is 11.8 points per 100 possessions worse without SGA this season, 12.1 points per 100 possessions worse in the halfcourt.
In the games that SGA has missed, their offensive rating falls to just 114.1, and their defense has actually been worse at 110.1.
It’s a major drop that you’d expect from missing the MVP.
Also interesting, the Thunder have been underdogs just once without SGA this season, headed into Sunday when they are 3.5-point 'dogs.
The Thunder have faced a favorable set of matchups to weather the storm. Their opponents in this stretch have a combined 219-225 record (49.3% win percentage).
The biggest impact for Oklahoma City has been points in the paint without SGA, which plummets without him by 7.2 points.
Interestingly, the Thunder also have given up 7.1 more points per game in the paint without Shai, despite their fastbreak points allowed largely remaining flat.
Their three-point rate has gone up in accordance, predictably, but what’s interesting is they have actually shot better from 3-point range, too, making 38.6 percent without him compared to 35.8 percent with him.
That’s a problem for the Cavaliers, as they rank 20th in opponent three-point rate and 27th in opponent three-point percentage.
Much of this is a consequence of their excellent pick-and-roll coverage, but they also give up shots to shooters.
It also makes a lot of sense for the Thunder to try and win the math game without SGA, Mitchell, and J-Dub.
Opponents shoot better without SGA out there by about 1.5 percentage points in eFG%, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is, especially with the weak opponents they have faced.
As for the Cavaliers, they are a wagon offensively.
The Cavs are bigger now, playing Jaylon Tyson, and with Evan Mobley back.
Cleveland ranks 8th in offensive rebound rate. This is a big deal vs. the Thunder, who can be vulnerable there despite Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. They have been about the same on the defensive glass without SGA.
The problem? The Cavaliers are 15-21 ATS (41.7%) when facing a below-average defensive rebounding team.
The Thunder obviously have the kind of defenders to slow down the Cavaliers’ lead guards, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Cason Wallace is a demon. Alex Caruso is out, but Wallace is honestly the team’s best defender this season.
Lu Dort excels against smaller guards, and Mitchell is not as much of a foul grifter as the ones who give him trouble (Harden obviously is).
Cavaliers vs Thunder Predictions, Betting Analysis
Cavaliers -3.5
The Thunder give up a huge amount of three-pointers, which makes no sense with their defensive rating.
It has caught them a bit this year; they are 25th in opponent 3-point percentage after giving up the highest number of attempts and the lowest percentage of makes last season.
The Cavaliers aren’t deadly from three, but do shoot on volume, putting up the 7th-most long range attempts.
Watch out in particular for Jaylon Tyson in the corner. His 3-point prop will be a play for me.
The Cavaliers' offense has been very mid vs. elite defenses this season; they are 12th in offensive rating against top-10 defenses per Cleaning The Glass. But that was before Harden came along.
Ultimately, the Cavaliers are the hottest team in basketball, and their defense is trending in the right direction as well with Keon Ellis on board. They have a 98 defensive rating with Ellis in over 100 minutes since the deadline.
I project this spread at Cavaliers -6.8 and think that the weak schedule is covering how dependent this Thunder team is not only on SGA, but Ajay Mitchell as well, without whom they are 5-9 ATS this season.
Over 226.5
This game profiles as efficiency-heavy game with the three-point shooting and offensive rebounds.
Both teams are bottom-10 in pace since the trade deadline, but this number is low enough to get me in on the Over since I project it at 229.
Jaylon Tyson Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Thunder give up the most corner threes in the league.
Jaylon Tyson leads the Cavs in 3-point attempts from the corner and shoots 47% on them.
Tyson is +110 to hit 2+ three-pointers at FanDuel, and I’ll play his ladder up to 4+ at +900.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Best Bets
- Cavaliers -3.5 (-110)
- Over 226.5 (-110)
- Jaylon Tyson Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
Spread
My first betting prediction for Sunday afternoon is on Cleveland to cover the spread at -3.5.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline here
Over/Under
My second Thunder vs. Cavaliers betting prediction is on the Over at 226.5 total points.
Thunder vs Cavaliers Betting Trends
