The Houston Rockets (40-24) and Denver Nuggets (39-26) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Nuggets -6.5), with the over/under set at 231.5 total points. Denver is a -290 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 11.
Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick
- Rockets vs Nuggets pick: Rockets +6.5 (-105)
My Nuggets vs. Rockets best bet is on Houston to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs Nuggets Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 231.5 -105o / -115u | +235 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 231.5 -105o / -115u | -290 |
Rockets vs Nuggets NBA Preview
This month, the Nuggets have split with the Timberwolves and Lakers. Tonight, they host the Rockets, and that four-team grouping currently makes up Nos. 3-6 in the Western Conference.
However, the team that has been losing ground of late has been the Nuggets. Over their last 16 games, the Nuggets are just 6-10 and they have fallen to sixth in the West, just one game from being in the Play-In Tournament.
While the Nuggets have the league's best offense for the season, they have slipped to fifth during this stretch.
That has not been good enough, given both their defensive struggles and clutch-time issues.
The Nuggets are 16-17 in clutch time this season with a -13.5 net rating.
It will not get easier for them from here. Including tonight's game, the Nuggets have three games in four nights against the Rockets, Spurs and Lakers.
The good news is they just got Aaron Gordon back recently, and Peyton Watson should not be far behind him. Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson are probable for tonight's game as well.
The Nuggets have taken four of the last five meetings against the Rockets, including the first two this season. However, the Rockets controlled the last meeting much of the way en route to a 115-101 victory in Denver.
Tonight's circumstances are not ideal for the Rockets, as they are traveling for the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. However, they are doing so after a win, as they defeated the Raptors 113-99 last night.
Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith, and Amen Thompson all scored 23 points or more, with Durant leading the way with 29 points and eight rebounds.
Durant has had a strong history against the Nuggets and could be in for a big game again tonight.
Rockets vs Nuggets Predictions, Betting Analysis
Rockets +6.5
As of this writing, the Rockets have not submitted an injury report, so keep an eye on that.
With that said, the three meetings this year have resulted in two three-point Nuggets wins (one being in overtime) and a 14-point Rockets victory. Additionally, the Rockets are the team playing better right now.
They have both won and covered six of their past nine games. In that span, they rank 10th in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating.
Neither team has excelled in clutch time this season. However, a five-point game in the last five minutes tonight will put the Rockets in position to cover as well as win outright.
Rockets vs Nuggets Best Bet
- Rockets +6.5 (-110)
Kevin Durant 30+ Points & Rebounds
Durant is coming off a game last night in which he had 37 points and rebounds combined.
He has averaged 27 points and 7.3 rebounds in his past nine games against the Nuggets — and recorded 30 PR in eight of those games.
Durant has cleared this line at a 56% rate for the season and 70% on the second night of back-to-backs.
Reed Sheppard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Reed Sheppard did not have his best game last night, snapping a streak of eight straight games with 14 points or more.
He has scored 14 points in all three games against Denver this season, while averaging 23 points per game — and he has accounted for 42 of those 69 points on 14 3-pointers.
Denver is 19th in 3s allowed and 22nd in 3-pointers allowed this season.
Jamal Murray Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Sheppard may not be the only point guard firing away, as Murray has made three triples in eight of his past nine games against Houston.
The Rockets are 27th in 3-point percentage allowed to point guards this season.
Rockets vs Nuggets Parlay Picks
- Kevin Durant 30+ Points & Rebounds
- Jamal Murray Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
- Reed Sheppard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Parlay Odds: +365 via DraftKings
