The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 7-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Thunder -7), with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -280 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +230 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, October 21.
My Rockets vs Thunder Prediction
- Rockets vs Thunder pick: Over 227.5 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Rockets best bet is on the over total points, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs Thunder Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
Rockets vs Thunder NBA Preview
After lifting their first NBA title, the Thunder look poised to go from strength to strength after locking up superstars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (four-year, $285 million supermax extension), Jalen Williams (five-year, $287 million extension) and Chet Holmgren (five-year, $250 million extension) for the foreseeable future.
The rest of the NBA is officially on notice. According to Spotrac, the Thunder still boast the fifth-youngest squad in the league with an average age of 24.7 years.
Thus, with a fully intact squad, it's understandable to see OKC open as high as an eight-point favorite at home against the Rockets.
However, the Rockets are a much-improved team following the addition of Kevin Durant (two-year $90 million deal) as the marquee signing.
Key players like Steven Adams, Aaron Holiday, Jabari Smith Jr., Jae'Sean Tate and Jeff Green re-signed with the team to provide further continuity.
Newly signings guards Josh Okogie and JD Davison will provide some much-needed depth in the backcourt, especially given the ACL injury to Fred VanVleet that will likely rule him out for the entire season.
While the loss of VanVleet is undoubtedly a blow, Durant should provide an immediate injection offensively, considering he shot over 52.7% from the floor and 43% from beyond the arc.
To land Durant, Houston traded Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the No. 10 pick (Khaman Maluach), and five second-round picks to the Suns as part of a historic trade that involved seven teams.
As good as the Rockets were last season, finishing second in the conference behind OKC with a 52-30 mark, they ranked just 21st in field goal percentage (45.5%).
Durant's arrival should make the Rockets a much more efficient team, which could result in a high-scoring affair on opening night.
Rockets vs Thunder Prediction, Betting Analysis
Despite posting the league’s best defensive rating last season (106.6), OKC allowed an average of 115 points in its five meetings with Houston.
Over bettors went 4-1 in those games, and this total feels a bit short at 227.5.
It's worth noting that in season openers involving the reigning champs and a total greater than 221 points, the over is also on a 5-2 run.
Those numbers certainly bode well for two teams with an array of offensive firepower available.
Given our projection, we can also pair the total with Houston's Alperen Sengun to exceed his points +rebounds prop of 27.5.
Sengun cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games last season, averaging 31.4 points + rebounds with a median of 33.
After registering 33 and 34 points + rebounds in two of his four meetings against the Thunder, there's clearly potential here for Sengun to have a significant impact.
A same-game parlay combining the total with Sengun's points + rebounds prop would help boost our odds to +214 over at DraftKings.
Pick: Over 227.5
Rockets vs Thunder Parlay Picks
- Over 227.5
- Alperen Sengun Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +214
Rockets vs Thunder Betting Trends
