Pacers vs Rockets Prediction, Picks Today | Tuesday, Dec. 26

Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs Rockets on Tuesday, Dec. 26 — our expert prediction and betting picks for Tuesday.

The Indiana Pacers take on the Houston Rockets for the first time this season in a battle of two very different play styles: fast offense vs. slow defense. The Pacers have dominated recent matchups between the two (7-0 straight up, 5-2 ATS), but that record goes back to 2019-20, when these teams looked much different. This season, the Rockets have been one of the best home teams in the league (12-2 straight up, 11-2-1 ATS) and the Pacers are 6-8 straight up and ATS.

Will the Pacers continue their historical dominance with offense and pace, or will the Rockets methodical, defensive approach win out?

Let's get to our Pacers vs Rockets prediction and pick.

Indiana, led by Tyrese Haliburton, is a run-and-gun offensive team that would make Steve Nash blush. The Pacers rank second in Pace (103.6) and third in Adjusted Offensive Rating (119.7). After an improbable run to the In-Season Tournament final, the Pacers have hit a skid, going just 2-6 straight up and ATS. Their two wins came against the Pistons and Hornets.

A big issue has been their ability to protect the ball — especially Haliburton. Despite a 4.41 assist-to-turnover ratio on the season, he’s dropped to just 3.0 since the IST final, and his 4.1 turnovers per game is third-most — nearly two than his 2.2 turnover average prior to the IST championship loss.

Haliburton has struggled against bigger teams with size and athleticism. Teams like the Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Raptors and Clippers have caused problems for him, and the Rockets have guys they can throw at Haliburton to disrupt him. Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Jae’Sean Tate are all capable of making Haliburton uncomfortable.

If the Pacers are going to get the Rockets off their game, they need to wear them out and control the pace. It will also take a return to form for Haliburton, who’s down from 24.5 to 18.5 points per game since the IST ended.

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Alperen Şengün has been a revelation for Houston this season, making a legitimate case for Most Improved Player behind Tyrese Maxey and Scottie Barnes. He’s leading a young Rockets team that’s made a leap almost as impressive as the one he’s made personally. Smith, Eason and Jalen Green have also taken steps forward, with Smith in particular making significant strides.

Smith's ability to shoot from distance and put the ball on the floor and drive to the hoop at 6'11" makes him a nice pairing with Şengün's unique passing ability, midrange and post game.  Their chemistry seems to improve every game, and it’s reached new heights lately with Smith coming into his own as a scorer. He’s averaging 27 points, 10.7 rebounds and three 3-pointers on 63.4% shooting in the last three games.

New Rockets head coach Ime Udoka and veterans like Fred Vanvleet, Jeff Green and Dillon Brooks have brought a fresh defensive identity to Houston — a rarity for younger teams. In theory, they’re a great defensive answer to Indiana’s offensive question. The Rockets are one of the better 3-point defensive teams in the league, but the they don’t force as many turnovers as an ideal Pacers kryptonite team would. Houston has also struggled to contain guards in pick-and-roll coverage — a possible weakness for Haliburton to exploit.

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I am all over the Rockets here. They’re incredible at home and have the personnel to slow down Haliburton and take the Pacers out of their comfort zone. I have this projected much closer to Rockets -11, making this my first two-unit play of the season.

Smith should continue his recent form against a soft Indiana defense, so look to some combination of points and assists. Follow in the app (AOWatts13) to see how I play the second-year Auburn forward.

Finally, I’ll also bet Haliburton to go under his points line. I think the Rockets control the pace and their length should bother him. I like this play at 24.5 and would take down to 22.5 for reduced risk.

That said, there’s always the chance Indiana lucks its way into a 3-point barrage and wins. If you want to back Indiana, I'd avoid just playing the spread. You might as well really go for it. I like a same-game parlay with Pacers moneyline plus Haliburton points over plus the full-game over for some extra juice if you're buying low on Indiana stock. If the Pacers are going to luck their way into this one, it’s not going to be a low-scoring game and they’ll need their best player in peak form.

Pick: Rockets -2.5 (2 units) | Tyrese Haliburton Under 24.5 points | wait for lines and look for Jabari Smith Jr. points/rebounds overs