Clippers-Lakers Betting Preview: Will LeBron Finally Turn Things Around?

Betting Odds: Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

• Spread: Lakers -3.5
• Over/Under: 234
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: NBA TV

The Lakers are now 6-1 to make the playoffs and desperately need a win, especially against a division rival also fighting for a playoff berth.

There's no shortage of storylines in this one tonight, but where's the betting  value? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The last time the Lakers faced the Clippers was just over a month ago when the Lakers closed as 2-point favorites and beat their in-town rival, 123-120.

Since that game, the Lakers have played six games when listed as the favorite, going 1-5 straight-up and 0-6 against-the-spread (ATS) in those, failing to cover by 16.8 points per game. Since Feb. 1, the Lakers, Suns and Knicks are the only three teams to not cover a game when listed as the favorite. — Evan Abrams

Over the last two seasons, including the playoffs, LeBron James-led teams are 67-98-2 (40.6%) ATS in their last 167 games. This season, the Lakers are the third-least profitable team ATS, while last year the Cavaliers were the least-profitable team ATS in the NBA. — Abrams

As Evan noted, the Lakers have been dreadful ATS this season. That isn’t stopping bettors from betting on LeBron, however, as a majority of spread tickets have been placed on them tonight. This season, when the Lakers have received 50% or more of bets, they have gone 16-29-1 (35.6%) ATS. The more lopsided the action, the worse the team has performed. — John Ewing

• 60% or more of bets: 10-22-1 (31.3%) ATS
• 70% or more of bets: 4-10 (28.6%) ATS

The only time it has been profitable to bet on the Lakers this season is when they are on a losing streak. The Lakers have lost back-to-back games entering Monday’s showdown with the Clippers. This season, LeBron and Co. are 8-5 ATS when they have lost two or more games in a row and 18-30 (37.5%) ATS in all other games. — Ewing

Mears: How I'm Betting Tonight's Game

We now have nearly a full month of data on the Los Angeles Clippers minus Tobias Harris, and it seems not much has changed:

• Clips before Harris trade: +0.1 point differential, 11th on offense, 21st on defense
• Clips after Harris trade: +0.5 point differential, 19th on offense, 13th on defense

They're worse on offense but better on defense; the sum result is an almost nonexistent change in net efficiency. In his 1,904 minutes with the Clippers, Tobias Harris' didn't add anything to the overall metrics; they were 0.2 points per 100 possessions better with him off than on.

And that's perhaps even underrating the Clippers. Since the beginning of February, they've played 10 road games and just three home games. Tonight is technically a road game, but they're in the same stadium in L.A., so I'm not sure home-court advantage or fatigue is a big factor here.

Put simply, the metrics have suggested all year that the Clippers are better than the Lakers, who are coming off an absolutely devastating loss to the lowly Suns and now sit with 6-1 odds to make the playoffs. Per my colleague Matt Moore, a Clippers win tonight would clinch the division tiebreaker over their city mates.

On the Lakers side of things, they remain and absolutely impossible team to handicap. How long can we wait for "Playoff LeBron" to engage? Again, they're now a big dog to make the playoffs and just lost a must-win affair to Phoenix. Is tonight the night they take things seriously? I'm not sure why we should believe that would be the case, to be honest.

So far today, a majority of bets are on the Lakers, but most of the money is on the Clippers. That discrepancy suggests sharp money on the Clips, and those teams have been historically profitable against-the-spread:

Perhaps the Lakers finally turn it on tonight, but I don't think it's wise to be on that. As a result, I'll follow the sharp action and grab the points with the Clippers. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.