Lakers-Warriors Christmas Betting Guide: Can LeBron and Co. Cover the Big Number?

Betting odds: Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

• Spread: Warriors -9
• Over/Under: 233.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN

It's the game everyone has been waiting for since LeBron James took his talents to Los Angeles.

In primetime on Christmas evening, LeBron and the Lakers will face Stephen Curry and the Warriors for the first time. Can the Lakers cover the nine-point spread? Our analysts weigh in.

Notable Injuries

• Los Angeles Lakers: JaVale McGee (illness) is doubtful. Tyson Chandler (back) is questionable.
• Golden State Warriors: Kevin Durant (ankle) is expected to play.

Notable Stats

Betting Trends to Know

Since 2005, defending champions on Christmas Day have gone 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 ATS.— John Ewing

Is it the curse of Cleveland? June 19, 2016, Game 7 of the NBA Finals. That was the last time LeBron James won a game on the road against Golden State. He's since lost seven straight games by 17.3 PPG, going 2-5 against-the-spread and failing to cover by 8.2 PPG.

Did You Know? Over/unders are hitting historical highs in the NBA in 2018. The Lakers-Warriors total is north of 230 points; the Bucks-Knicks total was also north of 225 points. This is the first time we’ve seen even one game on Christmas day with an over/under above 225, let alone close to 235 in Golden State.

Sunday night against the Clippers, the Warriors barely escaped at home as 11-point favorites, 129-127, with Los Angeles shooting 53% from the field. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 16-7 (69.6%) against the first-half spread, profiting bettors 8.0 units, in the game after allowing their opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. — Evan Abrams

Locky: Why I Like the Warriors ATS

There were so many times this season the Lakers could have caught the Warriors in a good spot. Golden State has certainly had enough injuries, team turmoil and general shakiness, that there have been advantageous times to play them compared to what they will most likely be later in the year.

Unfortunately for Los Angeles, now is not one of those times. Stephen Curry is in his usual form, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green are putting up with each other and exchanging half-hearted greetings and the Warriors continue to increase their quality of play.

Sunday night’s offensive efficiency against the Clippers was the team’s best in three weeks, per Cleaning the Glass. Although their defensive numbers may appear to have slipped, keep in mind the Clippers had a historic 3-point shooting performance in the game.

They were 18-for-23 from 3. They broke records. And Golden State still won. So the defensive numbers are a little misleading from the Warriors' standpoint. Sometimes a team just makes every 3, no matter how contested they are.

Considering there are no rest or travel scenarios involved in Christmas games that require an adjustment, and Golden State’s home court being in the upper half of the league, I made this Warriors -9.5.

The only injury concern is on the Lakers side, as JaVale McGee has been battling pneumonia and is listed doubtful. Although Tyson Chandler (questionable) and Ivica Zubac also bring relatively the same skill set — contesting shots at the rim and getting offensive rebounds — McGee is a little better at both and has more athletic ability to finish at the rim. If McGee doesn’t play, I'll downgrade the Lakers a bit.

This is a number that’s really close, as Christmas numbers often are with teams fully rested. With Golden State on an upward trajectory recently, and with my number a little higher than the market, I would lean Golden State at the current spread of -9. — Ken Barkley

Mears: Do the Lakers Have an Ingram Problem?

Brandon Ingram has loads of potential, especially on the defensive end, but his offense is still a major question mark.

He returned from an injury this week and got up to 37 minutes last game in a loss to the Grizzlies. He used 22.7% of the Lakers' possessions while on the floor, and he'll certainly be involved on Christmas Day.

There are two main issues with Ingram offensively. First, he just isn't a great shooter. He shot 29.4% from the 3-point line in his rookie season and then jumped up to 39.0% last year in his sophomore campaign. That second mark is excellent — way above league-average — but it just wasn't sustainable.

He's a career 65.1% free-throw shooter — and free-throw shooting is more predictive of future shooting success than a single-season 3-point mark — so he doesn't project to be a knock-down shooter in his career.

That's OK; not every player has to be Kevin Durant. But unfortunately, Ingram is trying to be with his shot selection. He's a mid-range gunner, and with him on the floor this year, the Lakers have increased their mid-range frequency by 4.7% (90th percentile of players this year).

Further, with him on, they've decreased their 3-point rate by 8.4% — literally the worst mark in the league among eligible players. Ingram's length makes people excited about him; I get it. But his early career marks suggest he's just not a guy that's going to generate efficient offense.

And if he's going to play 35-40 minutes against a Warriors team playing well right now, that's concerning. I rarely bet the Warriors since they're such a public team — they're just 14-20 ATS on the year — but this might be the spot since they're playing another big public team in the Lakers, who are 14-19 ATS. I'd lean Warriors -9.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.