The Miami Heat (3-2) and Los Angeles Lakers (4-2) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. EST from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Lakers are favored by -5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 233.5 total points. The Lakers are -210 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Heat are +175 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 2.
My Heat vs Lakers Prediction
- Heat vs Lakers pick: Under 235.5
My Heat vs Lakers best bet is on game totals, with the best price currently available at bet265. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Lakers Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Heat vs Lakers NBA Preview
The Miami Heat are playing a much more uptempo style of basketball than we've seen under head coach Erik Spoelstra. Miami leads the league in pace, averaging 10.73 possessions per game.
This is quite a shift in strategy, considering Miami ranked just 27th in the same category, averaging 97.08 possessions. An additional 10 possessions per game is quite a jump, and handicappers must take notice.
Given such a blistering pace, one might expect Miami would've gone over the total in each of its games.
However, Miami is a modest 3-2 to the over in five games. While the team has faced 230 or more points in three games, the games that went over might also be due to similarities in opponents' styles of play.
For example, Miami went over the total in games against the Magic, Grizzlies and Hornets — three teams that also rank in the top-10 for pace. The games Miami stayed under the total were against New York and San Antonio—two teams that rank in the bottom-third of the league in possessions.
Sunday's matchup against the Lakers will feature an opponent that plays at a tempo more akin to the Knicks' and Spurs', with Los Angeles ranking 19th in pace. As a result, this spot looks far less optimal for the over.
Heat vs Lakers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Despite opening with a total of 237.5, we've seen a move to the under at 235.5. According to our Action Labs, games with a total of 234.5 or more points are 10-2 to the under over the past 12 games for a profit of 7.1 units.
This trend, coupled with our analysis of Miami's previous opponents, should bode well for another under cashing.
With the handicap being fairly straightforward, there's no need to overthink things. Let's ride with the under and trust that the Lakers can do enough to slow down this Heat offense.
Pick: Under 235.5
Spread
I don't like the spread tonight.
Moneyline
I also don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm going with our Action Labs' system backing the under tonight.
Lakers vs Heat Betting Trends
