The Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2) and San Antonio Spurs (2-2) will square off in a pivotal Game 5 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Spurs are 10.5-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread (Spurs -10.5), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. San Antonio is a -410 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is priced as a +320 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Game 5 of this second-round playoff series on Tuesday, May 12.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Prediction
- Timberwolves vs Spurs pick: Spurs -10.5 (-105)
My Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 5 best bet is on San Antonio to cover the spread (10.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Odds for Game 5
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 218.5 -108o / -112u | +320 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 218.5 -108o / -112u | -410 |
Timberwolves vs Spurs NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview, Analysis
Minnesota is effectively running out of options. They are getting next to nothing from Julius Randle, who is shooting a dismal 37% from the field, and the secondary support from guys like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Ayo Dosunmu has been non-existent. The Timberwolves simply don't have enough weapons to stress a defense this good.
While Anthony Edwards has started to get his rhythm back, he still isn’t quite himself. The Spurs are playing him perfectly by forming multiple defensive layers—bringing help at the level of the screen and on the edges to force him into being a passer. That defensive pressure has frustrated Edwards and consistently led to costly turnovers.
Given their struggles to generate high-level offense on the road, the Wolves' margin for error in a hostile environment is razor-thin.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
The Spurs’ trajectory in this series is clear once you look past the noise. They lost Game 1 in a typical "physicality shocker" for a young, untested team, but they’ve since proven that their floor is much higher than Minnesota’s.
Even after that Game 1 loss, Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle were notably smug, claiming they "could not have played worse and almost won." It was annoying, but honestly, it was true.
When the Spurs aren't playing their worst basketball of the season, they’ve dominated, winning games on the road by 38 and 7 points. They only dropped Game 4 because Wembanyama was ejected, but with Wemby officially cleared for his crimes, the Spurs have their dominant anchor back for Game 5.
Beyond Wembanyama and Castle, the Spurs are also getting great series production from Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, and Devin Vassell.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Pick, Betting Analysis
Spurs -10.5 (-105)
I’m expecting today's game to follow a very strong historical trend: in a 2-2 series, the home favorite in Game 5 covers at about a 55% clip.
This isn't just about the trends, though—it's about the personnel. As long as Wembanyama plays his full allotment of minutes, the Wolves simply cannot keep up with San Antonio’s length and depth.
We’ve already seen this team put a 38-point drubbing on Minnesota in this series; they have the ceiling to blow this open early.
Under 218.5 (-110)
This total has been steamed up and I get why; the market is expecting the Spurs to put up a big number at home and they see Edwards finally finding his offensive footing. However, I’m going in the other direction.
The Wolves have actually gotten a little better at defending the Spurs each game, and on the other side, San Antonio's base defensive shell has given this limited Wolves offense nightmares.
I especially like the Under on the Wolves' team total, as they have consistently struggled to find a rhythm on the road.
Expect a grind where the defensive improvements on both sides keep this final score Under the total.
Matt Moore's Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5 Best Bets
- Spurs -10.5 (-105)
- Under 218.5 (-110)
