Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Don’t Want Nunn
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kendrick Nunn
Betting on NBA props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 11 games:
- Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers: 10:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV
Let’s dive in.
Heat G Kendrick Nunn
THE PICK: Under 14.5 points (+125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Our models hate Kendrick Nunn. That’s really the only explanation at this point. Day after day, I log into the Player Props tool, and day after day, it’s up to its same old crap, fading the Miami rookie with the confidence of a sophomore boy with a full bottle of Axe body spray at his disposal.
So what gives? Nunn has had an amazing rookie season, averaging 16.4 points on solid enough shooting, a key part of one of the league’s most surprising and most fun teams.
The key might be Nunn’s playing time. When the rook plays at least 30 minutes, he’s at a robust 20.2 points per game. When he doesn’t hit the 30-minute mark, that scoring average drops to just 13.3 per game.
It’s not exactly rocket science to suggest a guy needs to be on the court to score points, but it helps us understand how to play Nunn. Miami has seen a lot of injuries to Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic, freeing up minutes and usage for Nunn.
Winslow is out tonight but Dragic is playing, and Nunn was limited to just 23.6 minutes — and 15 points — on Saturday with Dragic healthy. Our model has Nunn at 29 minutes tonight and just 12.4 points. Fewer minutes plus juice in our favor means Nunn is worth playing up to even +100 odds.
Bulls G Tomas Satoransky
THE PICK: Under 6.5 assists (-152) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Tomas Satoransky has played all 31 Bulls games this season and has gone over 6.5 assists in only nine of them, a 71% hit rate on the under here.
Just about every key player on the Bulls has some sort of nagging injury, but they’re almost all expected to play too, so Sato shouldn’t see a big minutes or usage bump.
Satoransky is averaging 5.3 dimes a game and has gone under this number in eight of the last nine games. Our model has him at 4.8 assists tonight. That gives some real margin for error. Grab this one quick before the line drops to 6.0, and play the 6.5 as high as -180 if needed.
Pelicans F Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-152) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Again, you have to wonder what the oddsmakers are doing here. Ingram is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game this season along with 25.3 points in a breakout campaign. He got sidetracked a bit by an injury that cost him a week, but that’s over a month ago at this point.
Ingram is playing more than 34 minutes a game in December, so he’s back up to full speed. His rebounds have dropped to 6.4 per game this month, but even so, he’s gone over this line in six of 11 games, and he’s over 5.5 rebounds in 69.2% of his games as a Pelican.
Portland’s forwards shouldn’t exactly keep Ingram off the boards, and our model has him at 8.6 boards, giving you a massive margin for error here. Grab the 5.5 up to -185, and don’t be afraid to play this at 6.0 rebounds too if it moves there and gives you decent juice.