NBA Betting Market Report (Thursday, Nov. 21): Line Movement, Sharp Action on Pelicans-Suns

NBA Betting Market Report (Thursday, Nov. 21): Line Movement, Sharp Action on Pelicans-Suns article feature image
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker.

  • The New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns spread and total have moved since opening and continue to adjust ahead of the 10:30 p.m. ET matchup on TNT.
  • See how sharp bettors are moving lines in this game.

You might be familiar with Action Network through our content, but we also provide a host of tools for bettors, season-long fantasy players and DFS fanatics. One I want to highlight in this piece is Sports Insights’ live odds page, which allows you to see real-time odds movement and how lines are moving.

As a bettor, it’s not only interesting but important to note where sharp money is coming in on a game. Sometimes a team will get 70% of the spread bets, but the line will actually move drastically in the favor of the other team.

Aligning yourself on the side of smart bettors — or just making sure you’re not consistently on the square side — can be invaluable for those looking to step up their betting game.

In this piece, I’ll walk through both NBA games on the schedule tonight and show how to use the Sports Insights tools to analyze line movement and why the movement has occurred. For reference, here are a few phrases I’ll use, if you aren’t familiar with them:

  • Steam move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. Steam is the result of a sudden overload of money placed at multiple sportsbooks and, in most cases, occurs due to betting groups, betting syndicates and a few key players with the resources to “get down heavily” at multiple locations, all at once.
  • Reverse line movement: Betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages

Odds as of Thursday evening. 

Blazers at Bucks

  • Spread: Bucks -13.5
  • Over/Under: 239
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT

The spread had a soft open at 11.5 but then was largely available at higher limits at Bucks -12. Since then, it’s steadily moved up to -13.5, although not behind any particular steam move.

Instead it’s been a steady amount of bets throughout the day: The Bucks are getting 54% of the spread bets and 78% of the spread dollars wagered.

The over/under has seen more interesting action. Early this morning, the under at 230 was steamed, moving it quickly all the way down to 227.5. Bettors apparently thought that was too aggressive, and there was a steam move on over 227.5. It has now settled at 228.5/229 around the market.

Remember that all of this information is available live for Sports Insights users and can be a big benefit to bettors, especially those wanting to know where sharp money is trending and why a line has moved.

Steam moves tracked: Under 230, Over 227.5
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Pelicans at Suns

  • Spread: Suns -4
  • Over/Under: 233.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT

It may not look like it based on the relatively little movement on the spread, but bettors have definitely been getting down on this nightcap. When it opened at a consensus number of Suns -4, bettors steamed that side. Since then, the market steamed the Pelicans twice at +4.5, moving it right back to 4. We haven’t seen any more Suns action on that number.

The over/under opened at 233 and briefly moved up quite a few points thanks to a steam move on Over 233. Since, however, it’s moved back to 233 despite heavy bets and money on the over.

Steam moves tracked: Suns -4, Pelicans +4.5, Pelicans +4.5, Over 233
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]