Monday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Raptors vs. Bulls & Grizzlies vs. Warriors

Monday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Raptors vs. Bulls & Grizzlies vs. Warriors article feature image
Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23), guard Alec Burks (8).

There are nine games on the NBA schedule for Monday night and our experts are betting totals and spread in four specific matchups:

  • 8 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls 
  • 9 p.m. ET: OKC Thunder at Utah Jazz 
  • 10:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors 

See what bets they’re making below.


Odds as of Monday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Brandon Anderson: Raptors at Bulls

  • Spread: Raptors -5.5
  • Over/Under: 214
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

The Chicago Bulls are 0-9 this season against winning teams, losing by an average of 12 points a game. That includes a 24-point beatdown in the first week of the season to the Toronto Raptors at the United Center.

Winning teams are 8-1 covering a 5.5-point spread against Chicago. And lest you think that’s some sort of new trend, the Bulls lost their final seven games against winning teams last season too, two more against the Raptors.

The last winning team the Bulls beat was Jimmy Butler’s 76ers on March 6, and the only winning team they finished within five points of was Jimmy Butler’s Heat yesterday. (Weird, it’s almost like Jimmy Butler’s old teams hate him.) Add it all up and that’s a 16-game losing streak for the Bulls against winning teams.

In case you missed it, the Raptors are in fact a winning team. Pascal Siakam is good. Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol are good. Yes, Toronto is on a three-game losing streak, but that was against the 76ers, Rockets, and Heat, who are also very good.

The Bulls, however, are not good. Take the good team against the guys allergic to playing good teams.

The PICK: Raptors -5.5
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Matt Moore: Magic at Bucks

  • Spread: Bucks -12.5
  • Over/Under: 218
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

The Bucks have the league’s best defense, allowing just 101 points per 100 possessions. Against teams in the bottom 10 in expected effective field goal percentage (via PBPstats.com), they’ve held the Pacers, Magic, Knicks, and Jazz to under 100 points in previous contests.

The Bucks are going to get stops here. The concern is that the Bucks will run up the score big time off those misses. But the Magic have the second-best expected opponent eFG% off their own made shots, and allow the sixth-fewest transition points per game in the league.

The spread is high for a rock fight and I’ve gotten hit with a few backdoor covers vs. the Bucks, but I love the under here. There’s a decent chance Milwaukee puts up a huge number while keeping Orlando below 90 points. Milwaukee’s pace (No. 1 in the league) gives me pause, but that’s factored into the number being above 210.

The PICK: UNDER 218
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Matt Moore is 628-632-16 (49.8%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.

Rob Perez: Thunder at Jazz

  • Spread: Jazz -8.5
  • Over/Under: 208
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET

Oh let me tell you there is nothing I love more than laying EIGHT points on one of the league’s worst offensive teams without a healthy point guard. But speaking of that healthy point guard, all Mike Conley Jr. has done since joining the Jazz is post the worst Player Efficiency Rating of his career.

The Jazz looked quite good without him against the Grizzlies over the weekend — granted it’s Memphis — but I don’t see why this doesn’t continue against a mediocre Thunder squad on the second leg of a road back-to-back in which the game didn’t end until late last night.

The Jazz always show up at home, and if they ever get a significant lead, the Thunder may honestly just pack up shop and head out content with their back-to-back split after winning in Portland late last night.

The PICK: Jazz -8
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

John Ewing: Grizzlies at Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -3
  • Over/Under: 219.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

The Grizzlies are averaging 108.7 points per game this season — 19th in the league. The Warriors are an even worse 104.7 ppg (27th). These teams have struggled to consistently score, which explains why more than 60% of tickets are on tonight’s under.

Despite the public betting the under, the over has increased from 218.5 to 219.5. More than 60% of dollars are on the over.

This means sharp bettors expect a high scoring game. It has been profitable to bet the over when there is a larger percentage of dollars than tickets.

Since 2015, a $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $4,887.

The pros don’t always win, but it is a profitable long term strategy to be on the same side as the sharps. Smart money is on the over, I am on the over.

The PICK: Over 219.5
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

John Ewing is 508-450-19 (53%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.