NBA Betting Trend: The Overs to Bet After the All-Star Break


Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Zion Williamson #1 of the New Orleans Pelicans

  • NBA players suffer from a vacation hangover after the All-Star break.
  • Using Bet Labs, we explore how this can impact scoring and betting over/unders.

Vacations are supposed to leave you feeling rested. But often we feel drained after time off. Whether it is jet lag or just the idea of going back to work, it is easy to feel exhausted after a vacation.

NBA players are just like us. My theory: After a week off, players suffer from a vacation hangover.

Overs After the All-Star Break

When NBA players aren’t giving 100 percent, it shows on the defensive end of the court. A lack of hustle could lead to increased scoring and overs being more profitable.

To test this idea, I used the Bet Labs database to examine every game played in the first two days after the All-Star break since 2005. In a team’s first game back, when they are most likely to be going through the motions, the over has gone 154-126-5 (55.0%).

These are good results with a nice sample size, but wagering on every over is not the optimal strategy.

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