NBA Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Matt Moore’s Bets for Warriors vs. Kings Game 7 (April 30)

No one thought it would come down to this.

A dynasty trying desperately to wedge its window open and keep their championship standard intact.

A team that went 17 years between playoff appearances trying to knock off the Big Bad Warriors.

The two best words in sports: Game 7.

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings

3:30 p.m. ET ABC

Spread: Kings -1 | Total: 229.5

The Kings, with a preseason win total of 31.5, are in position to advance to the second round over Stephen Curry and the defending champion Golden State Warriors. They just need to win Game 7 at home.

For the Warriors, this series has been unlike anything they've seen before. They have never trailed 2-0 in a series before. They had been 9-1 in home closeout games before their Game 6 loss. This is just their third Game 7 in the Steve Kerr era. They've never lost a Game 7 in the conference finals.

For the Kings, this is a series in which they have proved a lot to the world. They've managed to outwork and out-clutch a truly all-time team, albeit a worse iteration.

By Game 7 of the playoffs, you've used up every adjustment. The Warriors sent Draymond Green to the bench (by his own suggestion), and the Kings went to Trey Lyles small-ball. Now it comes down to shotmaking.

In that department, it's the NBA's best offense in the Kings vs., well, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

Tough stuff.

I don't think the spread has much of an edge beyond choosing the winner, even if it moves off the Kings -1 line it currently sits at.

Since 2003, the team that covered in Game 7 won outright in 53 of 63 games (84%). The team that won covered 84% of the time. So if you like Warriors, play the moneyline, and if you like the Kings, lay the point.

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Home Teams in Game 7s

• 43-20 SU (68%), 33-30 ATS (52.4%) since 2003
• 21-14 SU (62%), 14-20 ATS (41%) since 2013
• 8-9 SU (47%), 4-13 ATS (23.5%) since 2018

Those figures include the years in the bubble with home teams. When you remove those, the record since 2018 is 6-7 SU (46%), 3-10 (23%) ATS.

So the "home teams win Game 7" trend has faded through the years. This mirrors a reduction in home-court advantage. Home teams in these playoffs are 29-18 (60.4%), and 55% ATS.

The Kings have been the hungrier team. They have won points in the paint, points off turnovers, second-chance points, and fastbreak points. The Warriors have shot better and held the Kings to a worse mark in the halfcourt. If Game 7 becomes a tight, possession-by-possession game, that favors the Warriors. If it's a normal basketball game, it favors the Kings.

I lean towards the Warriors in that capacity. The Warriors have absolutely dominated when Domantas Sabonis has been on the floor in this series. The Kings are -27 in Sabonis' 206 minutes played and +32 in the 82 minutes he's been on the bench. That's 14 minutes a game where the Warriors are getting smashed so badly they can't make up the difference to get the series.

But starters play more in Game 7s, and Sabonis is their guy. So I lean towards the Warriors, but Golden State has shaken my trust in them enough to hold off.

I do like the under, though.

In Game 7s, games go under 61.4% of the time since 2003, 58.8% since 2013 and 70.6% since 2018, according to Bet Labs.

The total for this game dropped to 229.5 from the Game 6 total of 236.5. When the total is three points lower than Game 6, the under is 22-12 (35%). When it's five points lower, the under is 12-2 (85%).

In Warriors games beyond Game 5 in the Kerr era, the under is 8-6.

If the Kings win this game, it's because the Warriors' offense falls to pieces. If the Warriors win, it's because their defense throttled the Kings, and they didn't turn the ball over.

I'll take the historical trend and believe the market is correct on the adjustment. I'll play the under.

Pick: Under 229.5

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Warriors vs Kings Player Props

There are two props that I like, both at DraftKings. Malik Monk over 21.5 points and assists (-105): Monk continues to have a huge advantage vs. the Warriors' bench unit lineups. Davion Mitchell over 0.5 steals (-140): Mitchell has proved he's a 16-gamer and hit this over in four of the six games. The Warriors on the road can get turnover heavy.