NBA Pick Today: Expert Bet for 76ers vs. Heat (Wednesday, April 17)

I have one NBA pick today for the 76ers vs. Heat Play-In game on Wednesday night. Check out my top bet for the 76ers vs. Heat total below.

NBA Pick Today: Expert Bet for 76ers vs. Heat

When you have a player like Joel Embiid who averages 34.7 points and 5.6 assists on 53/39/88 shooting splits, he’s obviously going to have a massive effect on your team’s offensive output.

Unsurprisingly, the 76ers’ per-game scoring average jumps from 109.1 when Embiid sits to 120.7 when he plays — a difference of 11.6 points per game.

Of course, Embiid is also crucial on the defensive end, but the drop-off isn’t as stark with Philadelphia allowing 112.7 points when he sits compared to 110.1 when he plays — a difference of 2.6 points.

Overall, 76ers games average 221.8 points when the reigning MVP sits but 230.8 points when he plays.

The Sixers shouldn’t be expected to combine for 230-plus points with a Heat team that plays with the league’s second-slowest pace (96.4) and averages a combined total of 218.5. But the odds are in favor of them getting over a total that has hovered in the 208-209 range for tonight’s play-in game.

With Duncan Robinson (back) listed as probable, the Heat should be at full strength save for Terry Rozier (neck).

Per our Action Labs data, when a total is 16 points below the NBA average (228.4 in 2023-24) with the home team favored by more than one possession and facing an unprofitable over team (Miami is 35-47), the over is 77-28-3 (73%) since 2016, including 28-9 (76%) this season.

Pick: Over 208 (Play to 210.5)

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