The NBA regular season continues with a solid 3-game slate today — Saturday, April 4.
Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all three of Saturday's matchups — including picks for Spurs vs. Nuggets, Pistons vs. 76ers and more.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for this Saturday.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Saturday, April 4
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Spurs vs. Nuggets Spread Prediction
By Matt Moore
I like the Spurs -2.5 against the Nuggets today. Honestly, I can’t get anywhere close to the market number, and it comes down to a fundamental distrust of how Denver is protecting its home floor right now.
The Nuggets have been pretty bad at home for a three-month stretch now. While they’ve been "okay" lately, I’m looking at the matchup hurdles they just can't seem to clear. First off, Denver’s depth is taking hits; Peyton Watson and Zeke Nnaji are out, and while having Aaron Gordon back helps, it doesn't fix their identity crisis at the rim.
The big problem for me isn't actually Victor Wembanyama — though he’s a force who erases three-fourths of the court and is the only human I’ve seen block the "Sambor Shuffle." The real issue is the Spurs' guards. Between De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper, you have three guys who know how to come clean off screens and get downhill.
Denver is running a base drop coverage, which basically tells opponents: "You can have all the mid-range pull-ups you want, but we aren't giving up the rim." The problem? Nikola Jokic can’t adequately defend the rim right now. Whether it’s exhaustion or a very real fear of picking up early fouls, he’s letting guys go. It’s layup after layup.
When Jokic gets left on an island, guys like Jamal Murray start cheating off their assignments to "help," which opens up the corner three. The Spurs aren't a world-beating shooting team, but they are excellent from the corners. They are built to attack Denver’s two biggest weaknesses: rim pressure and corner punishment.
My market power rating has this at Nuggets +2.9. Even if you give Denver the standard homecourt bump, this should be a pick’em at best.
The Nuggets are 3-4 ATS at home this season with a negative spread differential. They simply don’t handle business when they have a rest advantage anymore. This squad used to be a lock in these spots during the Jokic tenure, but this year, they struggle when they have the upper-hand.
I like the Gordon-on-Victor matchup because Aaron is strong enough to move him off his spot, but it’s not enough to cover for a backcourt that is going to get shredded in the pick-and-roll.
I expect the Spurs to win this game, and I think they win it by way more than the bucket they’re giving. Give me San Antonio -2.5.
Pick: Spurs -2.5 (-105)
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Wizards vs. Heat Prop Bet
The Wizards will be short-handed no matter what in today's matchup against the Heat.
I like Will Riley over 14.5 points in this game. He scored 22 against Miami last month — and he's gone over this line in four of his last five contests; and seven of his last 10 dating back a bit further.
Riley has carved out a consistent role for himself, despite the Wizards continuing to the tank — logging 31.8 minutes per game over his last 21, including 13 starts.
It's also worth pointing out that even in non-starts, Riley still logs real minutes — considering he's played no fewer than 25 minutes in any game since February 22, which was just the third game following All-Star break.
Pick: Will Riley 15+ Points (-125)
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Pistons vs. 76ers Player Prop Pick
By Joe Dellera
The Pistons face off against the 76ers tonight, and Philly is playing on the second half of a back-to-back — so I doubt we'll see Joel Embiid suit up for this one.
Jalen Duren has been awesome for the Pistons this season and has really stepped up with Cade Cunningham sidelined.
Since Cade went down, Duren is averaging 23.3 points and 11 rebounds; he has led this team.
Duren has also played well in previous matchups agains the Sixers. In two games vs. Philly, he has recorded 37 and 24 PR — but note, the game in which he recorded 24 PR, he only played 15 minutes.
There should be plenty of upside for Duren in this spot. Philly is a bit thinner on the interior than usual — and with the Sixers being weaker in the restricted area, Duren draws a great matchup inside tonight.
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 34.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
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