NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets on Friday (April 12)

I have two NBA picks today for the Friday night slate in the NBA. I'm betting one over and one player prop, so let's get into my NBA picks for the penultimate day of the NBA regular season.

NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets on Friday (April 12)

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With his team in hot pursuit of the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, Jalen Brunson has kicked it into an otherworldly gear over his last 15 games, averaging 35.1 points per game on 25.7 field-goal attempts per game while leading his team to a 10-5 record.

Over that span, the Knicks are scoring 114.7 points per game – up nearly two full points from their season average of 112.8 – and allowing 107.1 for a combined average of 221.8. New York is 11-4 to the over during this stretch, with two-thirds of its games reaching at least 213 points.

The Nets have become a slower-paced, lower-scoring team under interim head coach Kevin Ollie, but they are still averaging 213.9 combined points per game in the 26 games since he took over, with 16-of-26 (62%) landing on 213 or higher.

Despite being on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Knicks should continue to put forth max effort with the second seed still up for grabs. It helps that the Knicks were leading by 29 after three quarters in a 118-109 win over Boston on Thursday night, which allowed Brunson (30 minutes), OG Anunoby (26) and Josh Hart (32) to play abbreviated minutes. It also helps that Brunson/Anunoby/Hart lineups sans Julius Randle have been excellent offensively, with an Offensive Rating north of 125.

Historically, betting the over on low totals in a spot like this has been profitable. According to our Action Labs data, totals more than 16 points below the league average with the home team favored by more than one possession and hosting an unprofitable over team (the Nets are 38-41-1 to the over) have gone 75-28-3 (73%) to the over since 2016, covering by 5.3 points per game.

Mobley is averaging a career-high 3.2 assists per game in his third pro season, but he’ll have trouble beating his average against the Pacers with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland both in the lineup.

Mitchell and Garland have missed 26 and 24 games, respectively, but when both play, Mobley is averaging 2.6 assists per game compared to 3.9 when at least one of the guards sit.

Mobley will also have to contend with a Pacers defensive scheme that focuses on limiting 3-point attempts, which naturally leads to lower assist totals, as threes are typically assisted at a higher rate than twos. The Pacers allow the fewest threes per game (29.2) and the fourth-fewest assists per game, both overall (24.6) and to opposing power forwards (3.7, per Hashtag Basketball).

The USC product has been held to three or fewer assists in 30-of-48 (63%) games overall and 20-of-26 (77%) with both Mitchell and Garland active.

Pick: Under 3.5 Assists (Bet to -230)