Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Fade Jamal Murray’s Inflated Assist Total (March 17)
Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets.
- With 10 games on Wednesday's slate, Brandon Anderson sees plenty of value in the props market.
- He breaks down how he's is using Kelly Oubre's floor and Jamal Murray's ceiling to play two angles tonight.
Today is about floors and ceilings.
No, we aren’t building a house at The Action Network, we’re building a portfolio. In a good portfolio, it’s important to consider floors and ceilings. Healthy floors give us better shot at overs, while glass ceilings help us hit unders more easily.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Rui Hachimura, Under 1.5 3-pointers (-205)
|Kings vs. Wizards||Wizards -2|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Rui Hachimura loved playing the Milwaukee Bucks. The Wizards played the Bucks twice in a row on Saturday and Monday, and Hachimura put up big numbers. He scored 49 points in the two games combined and added 18 rebounds. Even more surprising were his seven 3-pointers on 16 attempts.
If you’re wondering why that’s surprising, it’s because Hachimura had 22 made 3s all season before those two games. That’s 22 3-pointers in 29 games … and then seven in two games. Sure.
This is not unusual, when you consider the opponent. It’s what the Milwaukee Bucks do — they push the opponent to shoot a bunch of threes, and when possible, they do everything they can to get the worst shooters on the other team to attempt high volume. Russell Westbrook’s 3-point volume was up for the past few games too. The Bucks were more than happy to let Westbrook and Hachimura bomb from deep, knowing the math was in their favor.
So that leaves us with two options. Either Hachimura suddenly added a lethal 3-point shot overnight, or the Bucks games were outliers. Let’s go with the latter. Hachimura had mad 47 3s in 77 career games entering those games, and no one learns how to shoot overnight.
Throw out the Bucks outliers, and Hachimura is averaging 2.5 3-point attempts per game this season. He’s hit barely 30% of them, averaging 0.8 make per game and going under in 25-of-29 non-Bucks games.
Don’t let the Milwaukee games throw you off the scent. Hachimura is not magically a 3-point shooter now. Grab the under here, even with the juice. This is worth a play as high as -250.
Kelly Oubre Jr., Over 5.5 Rebounds (-122)
|Warriors vs. Rockets||Warrirors -12.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Kelly Oubre Jr. has bounced around the NBA, but it seems he has found a home with the Warriors, at least for now.
One thing Oubre has never lacked is athleticism and energy, and the Warriors have corralled those attributes to help turn him into a plus on the rebounding end and a positive defender on a surprisingly strong defensive team.
Oubre’s rebounding has been especially up lately. Well, other than his last game, that is. Oubre had two rebounds Monday night against the Lakers in a 31-point blowout loss, but suffice to say that most of Golden State’s numbers were thrown off in that one.
But in the Warriors’ previous 15 games, Oubre averaged 7.0 rebounds per game. He secured at least five rebounds in all but one appearance in that stretch, giving him a very safe floor that puts us only 0.5 away from an over here, and he went over 5.5 rebounds in 77% of those games.
I don’t think this is quite as much of a slam dunk as that looks, because the Warriors were playing smaller without centers for a good portion of that stretch, but I still trust Oubre’s newfound rebounding floor and energy to that end. I’ll play the over here to -145.
Jamal Murray, Under 5.5 Assists (+120)
|Hornets vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -6.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
At first glance, Wednesday night looks like a get-right opportunity for Jamal Murray. The Hornets are the sort of opponent a team like the Nuggets can light up if the gears get moving right, and opposing guards have had big scoring games against Charlotte.
And maybe Murray will put up a big number as a scorer. But as a passer, his assist totals continue to remain limited. That’s sort of thing happens when you’re playing next to a big man nearly averaging a triple-double every night.
Murray did have eight assists in his last game, but he’s gone under 5.5 dimes in five of his last seven games and in 27-of-37 on the season, hitting this under 73% of the time. And while I was impressed with Oubre’s floor above, it’s Murray’s ceiling here that gets me excited.
Murray has five games with more than six assists this season. He just doesn’t have huge assist games, not with Jokic around. Since the start of February, Murray has only two games with more than six assists. That’s a pretty hard ceiling at six, which means we’re only one assist away from hitting the under here in most scenarios.
The line here reflects the fact that we are probably going to get a lot of assists in this game. Charlotte is second in the league in assists per game as a team, and the Hornets allow the most assists per game of any team too. Charlotte games average more than 55 dimes per game. But Jokic is the guy who could put up a monster assist line here, not Murray.
Trust the numbers and grab the under here at plus juice. I’d play at any positive number.